A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—18.3.2024

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—46572.10--High—46802.55--Low—46310.50---Close—46594.10on 15.3.2024.

Support: 46580.30/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 46886.90/46892.35/46929.70/47010.80/47191.65/47259.85/47363.40/47411.65/47481.35/47588/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and then had both side moves and finally ended the day with a loss of 195.85 points. The volatility is still continuing which is not a good sign  for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis. It has been below all these points for a long time, which is weak sign. Please note that it came pretty close to the lower band of the above range but then it started to correct and has been falling down for the 6 days in a row, since it had strait fall chance of relief up move is on the card and it can happen any day.  

Moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 46533----46369.50----46310.10---46251----46161----46077---46056----46036---45820---45661.75----45421.96---45295---45194----44871(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points, but it is into short, medium, long and deep long term  correction mode for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 47571.37---47328.78---47280.44 &47095, sustained break below 46310.10 may trigger fresh fall, break below 46056 will threaten the long term up trend, sustained break below 45661.75 may accelerate the fall, sustained break below 45421.96 may end the possibility for the continuation of the up move for a while and it may head for further down move and finally sustained break below 44871 may jeopardize the long term uptrend, which please note.    

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 46616---46747.28---46911-----46917----47045----47094----47095----47161----47153.56-----47191.65---47280.44---47328.78---47363.40---47433.85---47571.37----47644---47795----48166.15---48203.45---48292.25---48636.45---48722---48925---49024(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above 46747.28 and sustain on the closing basis then there will be a hope that it can give a pullback up move, else down move may continue and if it moves above the range of 46917---47095 and sustain then it may gain some strength, if it moves above 47571.37 and sustain then it will get out of corrective mode and finally if it moves above 47795 and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest its all-time high of 48636.45 or may go beyond it also.

It is important to mention here that four out  of five important technical indicators are negative now and only one indicator is still positive on the daily chart, four out of five indicators on the weekly & two on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months, furthermore it has broken its recent bottom on the bar chart, it has fallen below its short term moving averages on the daily chart, few below weekly chart also, below some medium term moving averages also and finally price action has also been weak for the last few days, therefore all together the situation is concerning and if it does not bounce back above 47364 and sustain on the closing basis in the next 2-3 days then the downslide may continue. Last but not the least in the worst case scenario as long as it holds 45421.96 (figure may change) on the closing basis hope of up move will be alive. The long term trend is still up but it is into deep correction mode, therefore it is sell on the rise market now but long trade can also be tried near critical support levels for pullback gains. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds 46369 for some time with a stop loss of 46100. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but as it is into short, medium and long correction mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 46850---46950 with a stop loss of 47120 or sell below 46310 with a stop loss of 46490 it could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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