A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—1.1.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48374.85--High—48477.70--Low—48091.85-Close—48292.25 on 29.12.2023.

Support: 48272/48220/48166.15/48081/48021/47998/47918/47856/47808/47575/47454/47420/47231/47123/46919.70/46886.90/46850/46484.45/46369.50/46310.40/45905.85/45893.80/45816/45782.75/45655.50/45238.80/45118.05/44949.90/44779.65/44710.55/.43600.35/44547.80/44498.60/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43345.95/43230.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45

Resistance:48478/ 48502/48574/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and had both side movement during the day and after 3 days of straight rise it took a breather today and finally ended the day with a loss of 216.30 points. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 44951.10), and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week starting from 1.1.2024 or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

It is exhibiting good strength therefore it is likely to extend the up move with in- between short breather from time to time. It took a breather today but  break below 48231.30---48133.94---47360.75 & 47095.12(figure may change) will push it into very short, deep short, medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in the long term uptrend and bias is positive as of now and it is still buying on decline market till it indicates otherwise.

It is very important to mention here that despite strong up move three out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down in coming days, furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative, all together it is concerning. However other parameters such as chart setup, moving average placements and price action are still good therefore it is likely to continue the up move as long as it holds the level of 48231.30 (figure may change) on the closing basis , else it may correct and moving down its important support points could be at 48133.94---47960---47913---47778--47723---47570---47417----47361---47325---47263---47226---47095.12----46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 48528---48573---48636.45---48717---49024---49568---49696(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE OVERALL TECHNICAL SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE BUT FEW TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE DISTINCTLY NEGATIVE WHICH IS CAUSING CONCERN AND CANNOT BE IGNORED OR TAKEN LIGHTLY TILL IT TURNS POSITIVE. BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF THIS IT MAY WITNESS A VERY SHARP DOWN MOVES ANY MOMENT AND LATEST BY 15-1-2024. SO BE ALERT, CAUTIOUS, VIGILLANT AND WATCHFUL IN THE LONG TRADE. PLEASE NOTE THAT TO KEEP THE ON-GOING UP MOMENTUM ON IN THE YEAR 2024 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 48636.45 ON THE CLOSING BASIS AND SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 48292.25 ON THE CLOSING BASIS MAY TRIGGER CORRECTION WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO SHARP IN THE INTENCITY.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it closes above 48636.45 or on decline near or within the range of 48230---48135 with a stop loss of 48050. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 47500 with a stop loss of 47350.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48600---48650 with a stop loss of 48750.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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