A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—9.11.2023

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43791.80---High—43797.55---Low---43547.75---Close—43658.65 on 8.11.2023.

Support: 43600.35/43519.55/43446/43416.10/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/ 42986.45/42589.65/42582.20/42108/42105.40/41962/41829.60/41626/41569/41060/40819/39424.85/39300.

Resistance:43706.15/43830.75/43862/43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/.          

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note but could not move much further and traded in a range during the day and as expected after four day of rise it corrected today day and finally ended the day with a loss of 79.25 points. It is still into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise, long term uptrend is also slightly threatened and break below 43513.86 & 43399.58(figure may change) will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its very recent rise. But the important and good thing is that the short term technical setup has reasonably improved, it has moved above its short term moving averages on the daily chart, it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is well above its recent down trend line ,which is a very positive sign and most importantly it is well above its critical range of 43345.95---43112----43038.25----42986.45(figures may change) and as long as it holds this range the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 43900---44151.80 & 44185 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44530---44710.55----45517(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that four out of five important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive now, raising good hope that up move can extend further, but all the five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is still highly concerning and indicates that after the extended up move it may still witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months as of now. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive in the recent past,  it had been positive for the last few days, but  it has been slightly dicey in the last two days, so watch out. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is also slightly threatened as of now. But as long as it holds the above mentioned range up move can extend with intermittent corrections. The short term bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 43800---44096---44151.80---44190---44237---44711---44741---45118---45363----45469---45517---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. Break above 43800 may resume the up move. Please note that if it moves above 44190 and sustain then it could retest its recent top of 44710.55 or can go beyond it also.

Kindly note that moving down from here it’s possible support points would be at 43513.86---43416.10----43399.58----43345.95---43284---43112---43038.25---42986.45---42987--42879---42720---42589.65---42559.50---42520---42473---42401---42386---42279---42252---42100---41984---41907---41829.60---41576---40948----40444---40164---39370(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but sustained break below the range of 43345.95---42987 may trigger big fall.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- The on-going up move is likely to extend and it can move up to 44400 levels or more if it holds the range of 43345.95---42987, especially the 43345.95 levels in particular. Therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds the mentioned range. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 41000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 43038---42987 and sustains.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it moves above 43740 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 43500 or can buy on decline near 43345.95 with a stop loss of 43200. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 43050-----42987 with a stop loss of 42800. It could be a risky trade.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, but the meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44000---44100 with a stop loss of 44200 for intraday corrective gain.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.