A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—27.2.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17591.35--High—17599.75--Low-17421.80---Close-17465.80 on 24.2.2023.

Support:17452.90/17421.80/17405.55/17353.40/17342.10/17326.10/17254.20/17166---17161/16950/16888/16836—833---809/16747.70.

Resistance: 17484/17493.55/17652.55/17719.75/17761.40/17774.25/17795.55/17812/17916.80/17959.20/17972.20/17992/18016/18105.30/18114.65/18132/18141/18183.75/18210.15/18265.25/18350.95/18442.15/18473.35/18604.45/16696.10/18887.60.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

It has been falling continuously for the last six days and it ended the week on 24.2.2023 near the low of the week with a loss of 478.39 points on the closing basis, which is a very weak sign but since it has been falling strait for the last few days, therefore a short pullback up move can happen any time but that may not be lasting.

It is into deep corrective mode and still within the range of its long term moving average which is placed between 17867---17271(figures will change every day, this  is very strong support range) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily chart and some are below on the weekly chart also, almost all important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and you are well aware that indicators are already weak on the weekly and monthly chart,  lastly and most importantly it is well below its major pullback trigger point of  17715(the trigger points will be scale down once it breaks its recent low of 17353.40) which indicates end of the rally. It is below its downtrend line also. The overall technical setup is very weak. Therefore please note that if does not bounce back sharply in next 3-4 trading session (chances of which looks bleak at this point of time) and move above some of its critical points as mentioned below and sustain then the accelerated fall looks inevitable in coming days and it could go down to 17100 levels or below also. However, short relief rally can happen in between the fall. The bias is bearish.

Moving down it will find support at 17421.80---17405.55---17353.40---17271---17175 (these points could be possible buying points also), 17405---17175 range is the strong support range, but please note that 17271(lower band of the long term moving average) & 17175 is the last key support for the time being and sustained break below it could trigger fresh fall and finally 16747.70 is the very critical and most important support point and sustained break below it on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, which may be kept in mind, so 17271---17175 & 16747.70 are the key support points.

Similarly moving up it will find resistance at 17553---17590---17694---17715---17778---17877---17966---17992---18013---18032---18105.30---18132(these points could be possible sell point also), please note if it moves above 17590( this figure will be scaled down if it breaks 17421.80 intraday) it may trigger short pullback rally but reasonable and good pullback rally can only be expected if it moves above 17715(figure can change) and sustain on the closing basis as of now. Please note that it has to move above 18132 and sustain on the closing basis to put it back on the strong up track mode, but looking at the just concluded week’s performance chances of strong upside moves looks pretty bleak during the week starting from 27.2.2023.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode. Please do not trade without stop loss.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.