CNX-NIFTY
Open-16870.55--High—17037.60--Low-16820.40---Close-16858.60
on 28.9.2022.
Support: 16824.70/16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.
Resistance: 16888.70/ 16891.70/16894/16995/17003/17140/17291/17298/17345.20/17354.05/17387.15/17429.70/17484.30/17490.70/17530.85/17639.50/
17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18096.15/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329.
(Bold and underlined figures
are most important)
It opened with a
down gap but covered the gap during the day and finally ended the day with a loss
of 148.80 points. It is important to
state here that the gap it created on 26.9.2022
is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions which is
technically possible then it can come up to 17292, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then
chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, which please note.
It is into medium term correction mode and has been falling for the last six
days, so a bounce back may be possible in next few days but whatever up move it
may witness now on would be a pullback move only. Please then note that it may
give a reasonable or slightly steady pullback rally only if it moves above 17080 and then above 17122(figure may change) and sustain
on the closing basis else down move will continue with short relief rallies.
It is looking extremely
weak on the technical chart as it is
below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and some below
weekly & monthly chart also and
below some medium and long term moving averages also, it is well below its
major down trend line , it is making lower top & bottom on the line and bar
chart both, decisively below its rising trend line and most importantly it is decisively below
its most important and critical point of 17387.15
& 17354.05 all together these
are terribly weak indications which can surely drag it down further in
coming days and it is already heading down. It is important to mention here
that its long term moving averages are placed in the range of 17091—16774(figure will change every day),
it is well below 17091 now which is
an alert sign for the long term uptrend and sustained and break below 16774 may put the long term uptrend in
potential danger which may please be noted. Please note that to get into the up
grove again it has to move above its long term moving averages range first i.e. above 17091 and then move above 17354.05 & 17387.15 and sustain on
the closing basis then there will be some hope for resuming the up move again
else down move is likely to continue with intermittent relief rallies. However
moving down it will find good support in the range of 17000---16774 and it may
bounce back from this range for a while as it bounced back today for a pullback
as it did today but it is very much likely to break this range eventually this
is what technical indicators suggest as of now. Therefore sharp fall from here
can only happen if it break this range and sustain below it on the closing
basis.
The long term technical
setup is severely threatened so be watchful, it is into medium term correction
mode, furthermore all the four important technical indicators are distinctly
weak, which is highly concerning. Please note that if these indicators do not
improve fast it can drag it down and it can improve only if it gives good and
sustained up move for the next few day, but looking at last few days price
movement it seems less likely that it could stage a sharp up move shortly,
therefore further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days with
intermittent pullback up moves and it is already on the down slide now. It is important to mention here that if
price pattern do not improve and remains weak the indicators as of now suggest
that it could hit 16500 levels or may be much lower levels in coming days/weeks/months.
The undertone is highly bearish as of now.
In view of the above observation, it
is into medium term correction mode so it is already a sell on the rise market
now. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise or sell on the price
breakdown strategy till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell
on the rise near or within the range of 17040—17090
with a stop loss of 17160 or if
it moves below 16774 with a stop
loss of 16870. Please note that for
safe trader’s long trade can only be tried once it closes above 17387.15 and sustains or if it moves
and closes above 17122 and sustain then
for pullback gains else avoid. But aggressive traders can try long trade on
decline near or within the range of 17000---16774
but not below 16774 with a stop
loss of 16720 for pullback gains.
Please note that in general long trade in a corrective market for pullback
gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature
and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware but long trade can be tried
at the most critical points. It is into medium term correction mode now and long
term trend is also severely threatened. So watch out.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling
point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade
should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed
here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for
the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
m for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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