Wednesday, 28 September 2022

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—29.9.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-16870.55--High—17037.60--Low-16820.40---Close-16858.60 on 28.9.2022.

Support: 16824.70/16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: 16888.70/ 16891.70/16894/16995/17003/17140/17291/17298/17345.20/17354.05/17387.15/17429.70/17484.30/17490.70/17530.85/17639.50/ 17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18096.15/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap but covered the gap during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 148.80 points. It is important to state here that the gap it created on 26.9.2022 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come up to 17292, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, which please note. It is into medium term correction mode and has been falling for the last six days, so a bounce back may be possible in next few days but whatever up move it may witness now on would be a pullback move only. Please then note that it may give a reasonable or slightly steady pullback rally only if it moves above 17080 and then above 17122(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis else down move will continue with short relief rallies.

It is looking extremely weak on the technical chart as it  is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and some below weekly & monthly chart also and below some medium and long term moving averages also, it is well below its major down trend line , it is making lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart both, decisively below its rising trend line  and most importantly it is decisively below its most important and critical point of 17387.15 & 17354.05 all together these  are terribly weak indications which can surely drag it down further in coming days and it is already heading down. It is important to mention here that its long term moving averages are placed in the range of 17091—16774(figure will change every day), it is well below 17091 now which is an alert sign for the long term uptrend and sustained and break below 16774 may put the long term uptrend in potential danger which may please be noted. Please note that to get into the up grove again it has to move above its long term moving averages range first i.e. above 17091 and then move above 17354.05 & 17387.15 and sustain on the closing basis then there will be some hope for resuming the up move again else down move is likely to continue with intermittent relief rallies. However moving down it will find good support in the range of 17000---16774  and it may bounce back from this range for a while as it bounced back today for a pullback as it did today but it is very much likely to break this range eventually this is what technical indicators suggest as of now. Therefore sharp fall from here can only happen if it break this range and sustain below it on the closing basis.

The long term technical setup is severely threatened so be watchful, it is into medium term correction mode, furthermore all the four important technical indicators are distinctly weak, which is highly concerning. Please note that if these indicators do not improve fast it can drag it down and it can improve only if it gives good and sustained up move for the next few day, but looking at last few days price movement it seems less likely that it could stage a sharp up move shortly, therefore further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days with intermittent pullback up moves and it is already on the down slide now. It is important to mention here that if price pattern do not improve and remains weak the indicators as of now suggest that it could hit 16500 levels or may be much lower levels in coming days/weeks/months. The undertone is highly bearish as of now.

In view of the above observation, it is into medium term correction mode so it is already a sell on the rise market now. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 17040—17090 with a stop loss of 17160 or if it moves below 16774 with a stop loss of 16870. Please note that for safe trader’s long trade can only be tried once it closes above 17387.15 and sustains or if it moves and closes above 17122 and sustain then for pullback gains else avoid. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 17000---16774 but not below 16774 with a stop loss of 16720 for pullback gains. Please note that in general long trade in a corrective market for pullback gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware but long trade can be tried at the most critical points. It is into medium term correction mode now and long term trend is also severely threatened. So watch out.

 NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

 

 

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