A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-BANK NIFTY FOR—30.9.2022

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open-38092.85-High-38283.40-Low-37536.65-Close-37647.75 on 29.9.2022.

Support: 37581.05/37471/37238/36993/36876.35/36718.80/36651.85/36497.35/36375.35/36332/36083.70/35985.25/35926/35810.90/35762/35585.20/35543.10/35511/35481.70. 

Resistance: 37708.75/37988.60/38112.75/38134/38377.35/38426.65/38765.55/38855.55/39117.15/39197/39301.25/ 39424.85/39546.50/39895/40043/40160.20/40288.90/40453/40685.95/40881/41367.25/41829.60/41840.15/42696/44461/45525/45633.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and then slipped down and finally ended the day with a loss of 112.10 points. It is important to state here that the gap it created on 26.9.2022 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next one trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come up to 39412, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, which please note. It is already into medium term correction mode and it has been falling for the last seven days in a row, so  possibility of a bounce back may be there and it can happen in next few days but it seems that it would be of weak intensity, but whatever up move it may witness now on would be a pullback move only. Please note that it may give a reasonable or slightly steady pullback rally only if it moves above 38514 & 38553(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis else down move will continue with short relief rallies.

It is looking extremely weak on the chart as it is well below its all short term moving averages and below some medium term averages also, broken multiple bottom on the line and bar chart, decisively broken its rising trend line and most importantly it is decisively below its most important and critical or say make or break point of 39895, all together these are highly concerning and indicate further fall ahead. Please note that to get into the up grove again it has to move  above its short term moving averages and then above its critical point of 39895 and sustain on the closing basis else down move will continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies and the down move is already on. Looking at last few days trading session’s price movement chances of sharp recovery seems bleak at this point of time. Moving down from here it will find support at 37249.50---36248.60—35761.13---35585.20---35481.20, as it is well below its threshold point of 38796 therefore it is already into medium term corrective mode, is has further weakened as it closed below another important point of 37708.75 today, break below 35761.13 will push it into major long term corrective mode and sustained break below 35585.20 & 35481.20 may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that its long term moving averages are placed in the range of 37150—36266(figure will change every day),  break below 37150 will be an alert sign for the long term uptrend and sustained break below 36266 may put the long term uptrend in potential danger which may please be noted.  Please note that this range will act as a very strong support for it and it may bounce back from this range also for a while but it is very much likely to break this range eventually this is what technical indicators suggest as of now. Please note that sustained break below the range may accelerate the fall.

The long term technical setup is also on the verge of severe threat; it is already into medium term correction mode now. Furthermore please note that all the four important technical indicators have turned negative and showing distinct weakness on the daily chart, which is highly concerning.  Please note that if these indicators do not improve fast it can drag it down and it can improve only if it gives good and sustained up move for the next few day, but looking at the last few days price movement it seems less likely that it could stage a sharp bounce back shortly, therefore further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days with intermittent pullback up move and it is already on the down slide now. It is important to mention here that if price pattern do not improve and remains weak the indicators as of now suggest that it could hit 36500 levels or may be much lower level then this in the coming days/weeks/months.  The undertone is highly bearish as of now.

In view of the above observation, it is already into medium term correction mode; so it is a sell on the rise market now. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 38200---38300 with a stop loss of 38570 or sell if it moves below 37530 with a stop loss of 37750. Please note that for safe trader’s long trade can only be tried once it moves above 39895 and sustains on the closing basis or if it closes above 38553 and sustain then for pullback gains else avoid. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 37136—36262(preferably try near the lower end of the range) with a stop loss of 36000 for pullback gains. Please note that in general long trade in a corrective market for pullback gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware but long trade can be tried at the most critical points. It is into medium term correction mode now and long term trend is also seems threatened. So watch out.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.