Friday, 23 September 2022

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—26.9.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17593.85--High—17642.15--Low-17291.65---Close-17327.35 on 23.9.2022.

Support: 17298/17291/17140/17003/16995/16894/16891.70/16888.70/16824.70/16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.                                                                                                                                                           

Resistance: 17345.20/17354.05/17387.15/17429.70/17484.30/17490.70/17530.85/17639.50/ 17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18096.15/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and then as envisaged (see my last few post) plunged down sharply and finally ended the day with a substantial loss of 302.35 points. It is into deep corrective mode and whatever up move it may witness would be a pullback move only as of now.

It is decisively below all its short term moving averages now which are placed in the range of 17754----17659(this range will change every day) for 26.9.2022 and  below some medium term moving averages also, below its major down trend line which is placed at 17690(it will change every day) for 26.9.2022, it is making lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart both, decisively broken rising trend line today and most importantly it has closed below its most important support range of 17408.74---17387.15---17377---17354.05---17345.20 from where it bounced back few times in the recent past, therefore all together these developments are terribly weak and indicate further fall ahead, fall may be arrested if it moves above 17387.15 and sustain on the closing basis else down move is likely to continue. Please note that  to get into the up move grove again it has to move above all the aforesaid parameters and then to pick up strong up momentum it has to move above its critical points of 17920 &18114.65 and sustain on the closing basis else it may drift down. It has already started drifting down and looking at today’s down move chances of staging a sharp bounce back which could take it above all the aforesaid parameters seems pretty bleak, therefore further fall from here looks inevitable with in between short relief rallies. Going down from here its next important support point is recent double bottom of 17166--17161 , break below it may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that its long term moving averages are placed in the range of 17090—16765(figure will change every day), break below 17090 will be an alert point for the long term uptrend and sustained break below 16765 may put the long term uptrend in potential danger which may please be noted.

The long term technical setup still looks o.k. as of now but near the striking range to become weak and it is already in the deep short term correction mode. Furthermore all the four important technical indicators are distinctly weak, which is highly concerning. Please note that if these indicators do not improve fast it can drag it down and it can improve only if it gives good and sustained up move for the next few day, but looking at last few days price movement and today’s price destruction it seems less likely that it could stage a sharp up move shortly, therefore further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days with intermittent pullback up move. It is important to mention here that if price pattern do not improve and remains weak indicators as of now suggest that it could hit 16500 levels or may be much lower levels in coming days. The undertone is highly bearish as of now.

In view of the above observation, it is into deep short term correction mode; so it is already a sell on the rise market now. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell on the rise near or within the range of 17450—17500 with a stop loss of 17550 or sell if it moves below 17290 with a stop loss of 17420 or sell if it remains below 17354 with a stop loss of 17415. Please note that for safe traders long trade can only be tried once it closes above 17387.15 and sustain or if it moves above its short term moving averages range and sustain or if it closes above 17920 and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 17387.15 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 17320 or near 17166 with a stop loss of 17080 for pullback gains. Please note that in general long trade in a corrective market for pullback gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware but long trade can be tried at the most critical points. It is into deep correction mode but medium and long term trend still looks o.k. as of now but seems threatened. So watch out.

 NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

 

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