A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR-14.3.2022—18.3.2022

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—16528.80--High—16694.40—Low—16470.90---Close-16630.45 on 11.3.2022.

Support:16565.60/16410/16376.75/16349.95/16203.25/16162.55/16133.80/15962.25—901/15671.45/15635.95/15578/15513.45/15450.90/15431/15336/15044/14984/14591.40.             

Resistance: -16701.65/16782.40/16809.65/16815.90/16836.80/16891.70/17043.65/17216.10/17326/17354.05/17387.15/17452.90/17490.60/17613.15/17639.50/17794.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It had volatile movement and it broke its critical support points during the week but managed to bounce back above some critical points at the end for the week under review i.e. 7.3.2022 to 11.3.2022. It ended the week on a positive note compare to previous week, but that is not enough. It is already into medium term correction mode and way below its, long term moving averages and other long term key points except for few, which is highly concerning and indicate that long term uptrend is already in potential danger now. However as long as it holds 16575(this figure will change every day +/- 5points) on the closing basis the hope of long term uptrend will be alive and as long as it holds 16364(it will be scaled downward if it breaks 15671.45) chances of pullback up move will be alive else down move will continue. Moving down its critical support points could be at 16575---16410---16364---16300---16203.25---16110---15986.42---15671.45, sustained break below 16575(figure will change every day) on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend, break below 16364 will   weaken it further and sustained break below 15986.42 on the closing basis will push it into long term correction mode which could last few weeks or months and it may witness an accelerated fall, therefore the range of 16575—15986 could be considered as important or value range for now and it may stage bounce back from this range. Similarly moving up its critical resistance points would be at 16695---16733---16796---16816---16984---17062---17137-17354.05---17387.15. The up journey seems pretty tough now and it will show good strength only if it moves above 17387.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

 It is already into medium term corrective mode now and some important technical indicators are also weak on the daily and weekly chart which indicates that further fall cannot be ruled out off course with in between short relief rallies. However it is showing some short positive development in the indicators which may propel the on-going pullback rally to a reasonable or decent level provided it holds 16575 & 16364 levels on the closing basis. Furthermore as long as it holds the range of 16575—15986 the hope of bouncing back and a pullback up move continuation would always be there. The overall technical setup is still weak therefore the bias is bearish as of now.   

In view of the above observation for safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade completely for now, however aggressive traders can try long trade in the range of 16575---15986  at appropriate points with self defined  stop losses or can buy if it maintains above 16631 for some time with a stop loss of below 16550 for a possible pullback up move but please note that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and could fizzle out abruptly also, so be alert and careful in the long trade. Please note that I would personally avoid the long trade in corrective market. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till it gives visible indication of correction completion.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.