CNX-NIFTY
Open—17149.50--High—17155.60—Low—16909.60---Close-17003.75
on 24.12.2021.
Support:16891.70/16782.40/16701.85/16565/16410.20/16376.05/16349.45/16162.55/15962.25---15895.75/15635.95/15632.75/15578.55/15513.45/15450.90.
Resistance: -17055/16782.40/16891.70/17055/17216.10/17254.20/17326.10/17436.50/17452.90/17489.80/17543.25/17600.60/17613.15/
17639.50/17757.95/17792.95/17798.20/17884.60/17947.65/17968.50/18012.20/18041.95/18112.60/18342.05/18604.50.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
After the severe fall on 20.12.2021 it staged a pullback rally
for the next 3 days and managed to
close above the long term uptrend upholding point for a day but on the last day
of the current week ending on 24.12.2021
it slipped below it again and closed with a loss of 68.85 points, which indicates
weakness. However it is still above its long pullback threshold point of 16928.04 and as long as it stays above
it on the closing basis chances of pullback up move is there but it may gather
some momentum if it moves above its long term uptrend upholding point 17040(figure will change for the next day) and
sustain on the closing basis else chances of resuming down move is greater.
It is into medium term correction
mode and moving down from here its first critical and important support range
will be between 16950---16777(figure
will change for the next day) and the second range would be between 16410---16200---15986.42(figure may
change for the next day), please note that it may stage a bounce back from this
range but sustained break below 16200
will put the long term uptrend in real danger and sustained break below 15986.42 will push into long term
correction mode and may put an end to the long term uptrend for some time which
should be kept in the back of the mind. Please note that to keep the hope of
long term uptrend intact or alive it has to maintain above 16200---15986.42(figure may change for the next day) on the closing
basis but it will get some strength or chance of getting back some up momentum
only if it sustains above 17040(figure
will change for the next day) on the closing basis. Please note that it
could be the beginning of a bear market and sustained break below 16200 & 15986.42 will be the part
confirmation of it and finally sustained break below 14883.56 which is a bear market threshold point will confirm it.
Therefore these points should be considered as potential support points.
Similarly moving up from here it will
face stiff resistance in the range of 17040---17275---17380---17490---17640(figure may
change for the next day), sustained move above 17040 may
give some strength to the up move and sustained close above 17380 may help it to pick up some momentum and sustained
close above 17640
may reverse the trend. But it seems slightly difficult to cross this range in
coming days instead chances of moving down looks much greater at this point of
time.
It is
important to mention here that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and
can end abruptly, it is therefore suggested that one should be extremely alert
and cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains.
It is into medium term correction mode
it is below its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, it is
also below its medium term moving averages on the daily chart, most importantly
it is way below some of its long term parameters and below some of its long
term moving averages also, so all together these are very weak indication and
pointing towards further fall ahead in coming days, provided it remains below
its critical points. Please note that few important
technical indicators are negative on the daily and weekly chart which is a very weak
indication, therefore further fall from here look inevitable off course with in
between short relief rallies and if indicators don’t improve or it does not
bounce back above its key price levels in the next few days. The short and
medium term trend is weak and the long term uptrend is also in jeopardy now,
therefore the overall bias looks weak as of now.
In view of the above, it slipped into
medium term correction mode now and knocking on to disturb the long term
uptrend, therefore for safe traders
long trade should be avoided till clarity on correction completion emerges. However
aggressive can try long trade if it moves above 17073 and maintain for some time or on the decline near or within the
range of 16950---16777(figure may
change) preferably near the lower end of the range but not below 16777. I strongly caution here that
long trade in a corrective mode for pullback gains could be a risky affair;
therefore one should be extremely cautious and vigilant in the long trade at
this point of time. It is still in corrective mode; therefore short
trade can be attempted on the rise at appropriate point or can be tried on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge
gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but
short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and
vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly
suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY (Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near or within the range preferably near the
lower end of the range 16950---16777 but not below
16777 with a stop loss of 16690. It is for the aggressive traders and could be
a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves above 17073 and maintain for some time with a
stop loss of 17000. It is for the aggressive traders and could be a highly
risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 17160---17200 with a stop loss of 17250. It could be a
risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 16950
with a stop loss of 17030. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it does not move
above 17073 in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 17110. It
could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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