A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—18.3.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14946.55--High—14956.55—Low—14696.05---Close-14721.30on 17.3.2021.

Support:14653.35/14467.75/14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.        

Resistance:14753.55/14823.07/14862.10/14888.80/14977.20/14998.80/15069/15102/15165/15176.50/15273.15/15305/15325/15369/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It did not move above its important points in last two days (see my post for 15.3.2021) therefore as envisaged it drifted down and closed with a huge loss of 189.15 points today. It has shown tremendous weakness today therefore it could fall further from here in coming days if it does not bounce back sharply above some of its key points and sustain in next 2-3 days. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80  therefore it is into  deep short term correction mode now and it can last for 4-7 days or more, sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

It is into deep short term correction mode now and further fall from here looks imminent because it did attempt to cross the upside critical range of 15239---15471 for the continuation of the up move on the 12-3.2021 but fell flat the same day and thereafter losing ground continuously and slipped into deep short term correction mode again, so it seems that this time down move could be painful. But it has got good support in the range of 14695---14635 and if it manages to hold this range on the closing basis then there could be some relief rally too else it could come down to 14467.75 level and sustained break below this mark may witness accelerated fall in it which may please be noted.  However moving up from here may not be easy because it has got series of tough resistance in the form of short term moving averages, key points and critical range ahead crossing them is essential for a smooth and steady up move but it looks very tough therefore it is not likely to happen at this point of time. Going up its critical resistance points would be at 14753.55---14888.80---14998.80--15131.35---15176.50---15239---15273.15---15369---15431.75---15471---15615---15694---15800---16028---16323. Similarly moving down its critical support points would be at 14695.25---14635.05---14529.15---14467.75---14428---14336.34---14300---14258---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75 levels.  Please note that the short term technical setup is very weak but the long term technical setup is still o.k. as of now. The short term bias is down.

In view of the above observation, since it is corrective mode and trading below the broad range of14920---15471 for the on-going week which indicates extreme weakness therefore, long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. However those traders who want to take advantage of a possible pullback move can try long trade if it holds the range of 14695—14635 but not below it and then near 14467.75 but not below it. Please note that long trade in this type of market behavior could be a risky proposition. It is in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy  or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup is still o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy if it hold the range of 14695---14635 for some time with a stop loss of 14590. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14940---14980 with a stop loss of 15020. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Or

Sell if it moves and sustain below 14635 for some time with a stop loss of 14710. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.