Open-33605.05--High-33610.65--Low—33166.10--Close-33318.20
on26.3.2021
Support:32842.30/32718.75/32613.10/32465/32415/31725.85/31650.90/31510.25/31297/31264/30945.20/30893.65/30197.85/29687.70
Resistance;33361/33625/33665/34360.05/34568/34658.70/34803.60/34893.25/34973/35428.15/35584.60/35648/35815.75/35884/36086/36397/36455/36466/36477/36615.20/36647/36897/37170/37284/37708.25/38286/38520.
(Bold and underlined figures are most
important)
After two days of fall it took a breather today and closed with a gain of 311.75 points, but it is still on a very weak technical footing so today’s up move is not sufficient to take it forward and if it does not bounce back sharply above some of its key points in next couple of days then further fall looks imminent. Please note that its critical and most important points for the year 2021 are 32613.10---32465.45---31297.30 & 31264.05 and it is above these points now and as long as it hold these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are placed at 36063.50---35815.75---35648---33625---32612.92(figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of 36063.50---35815.75 & 35648 for last few days so it was already into deep short term corrective mode , which can last for 4-7 days or more and on 24.3.2021 it decisively breached its 4th key point of 33625 therefore it is into medium term correction mode now and it can last much longer, lastly and most importantly sustained break below 32612.92 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and can potentially threaten the uptrend also which may please be noted.
It is still into deep short term and medium term correction
mode despite the up move today. It is well below its short and medium term
moving averages and some long term technical parameters also and most
importantly it has decisively broken its long term rising trend line on 24-3-2021, which indicates that further
fall is ahead for sure but with intermittent short relief rallies in coming
days. Please note that if it sustains below 33625 on the closing basis then the correction could deepen and it
could be more painful also pricewise and time wise both and it could hit 30500—30000 level on the downside in coming
days. It is important to mention here that now the pullback rally threshold point
is at 33664.52(it can change), if it
closes above this point and sustain then it could give a reasonable pullback
rally, else down move will continue with very short up move below this point.
Kindly note that chances of significant up move from here looks slim at this
point of time, however moving up it will face critical resistance at-33361---33625---33664.52---34360.05---34438---34658.70---35062---35687---36460---36650.Similarly going down it can find support at-33006---32842---32612.92---32465.45---32415.25---31650---31297---31264.
It seems that it is in the process of
changing the trajectory from uptrend to the downtrend provided it does not
bounce back sharply and move above some of its key points in next couple of
days, chances of sharp bounce back looks slim at this point of time. Kindly,
note that the short term technical setup and parameters are tremendously weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term and
medium term correction mode therefore, long trade in general should be avoided
till it gives visible indication of correction completion. Long trade can only
be attempted once it closes above the pullback threshold point of 33664.52 else avoid. However aggressive
traders can try long trade if it moves above 33664.52 intraday and sustain for some time or on decline near 33000 but not below it. Please note that long trade in deep
corrective mode could be risky propositions specially buy on decline. Since it
is in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for
taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion
emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution
because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 33000 with a stop loss of 32900. It is
for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and maintain above 33665 intraday for some time with
a stop loss of 33565. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky
trade.
2. Sell if it remains below but near 33625 in first one
hour of trade with a stop loss of 33725. It could be a risky trade but worth
trying for intraday gain in weak market.
Or
Sell on the rise near or
within the range of 33900---34000 with a stop loss of 34150. It could be a
risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Or
Sell if it moves below 33000 and sustain with a
stop loss of 33150. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain
in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely
of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of
the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss
in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down
to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as
entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT
STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and
exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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