Open—15321.15--High—15336.30—Low—14953.60---Close-15030.95on
12.3.2021.
Support:14998.80/14977.20/14888.80/14862.10/14823.07/14753.55/14653.35/14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:15069/15102/15165/15176.50/15273.15/15305/15325/15369/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with an up gap today but could not sustain at the
higher levels and in the late afternoon plunged down sharply to close with a
loss of 143.85 points, after
maintaining above all the key points for the last two days today’s movement was
disappointing. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11
& 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds
these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points
are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is running below its 1st key point of 15131.35 therefore it is in very short term correction mode now and
if it sustains below it then it could last for 2-3 days. Please note that sustained close below 14998.70 & 14888.80 can push it again in the deep short term correction mode
which can last for 4-7 days or more,
sustained break below 14336.34 on
the closing basis will push it into medium
term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained
break below 13562.48 on the closing
basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten
the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for
sure, which may please be noted.
After staying above all the key points for the last two days
it sharply fell down and decisively closed below its 1st key point of 15131.35
today (figure can change earlier it
was 15083 for today) which is a weak sign. You would appreciate that it
never closed above 15239 in last six
days (see my earlier post) which was needed to pick, up momentum therefore some
apprehension was there about the continuation of the up move. Please note that
if it does not bounce back above 15131.35
& 15239 and eventually move above 15431.75
& 15471 and sustain on the closing basis then further upside seem
capped in the range of 15239---15471,
furthermore if it does not move above the aforesaid points shortly then it
could drift downward in coming days and this time it could be in an accelerated
pace. It is important to mention here that the further strong and sustainable up move can only be expected if it
moves above 15431.75 & 15471 and
sustain on the closing basis else chances of deep correction is very imminent. Looking
at today’s movement it seems slightly tough to cross this important range. However
sustained close above 15471 will
open the very big upside range for it, which may please be noted. Going up its critical
resistance points would be at 15131.35---15176.50---15239---15273.15---15369---15431.75---15471---15615---15694---15800---16028---16323. Similarly moving down its critical
support points would be at 14998.80---14888.80---14753.55---14695.25---14635.05---14529.15---14467.75---14428---14336.34---14300---14258---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75
levels. Please note that the short
term technical setup was improving but got a jolt again today so watch out for
next few days how it pans out but the long term technical setup is still o.k.
as of now.
In view of the above observation, for safe traders it is suggested to
avoid long trade till it closes at least above 15239 and sustain on the closing basis, but it would be relatively
safe to trade long once it closes above 15471
and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that long trade in this type of
market behavior could be a risky proposition, however the broad range for the
week starting from 15.3.2021 would be
between 14920---15471 and short &
medium range would be between 14920---15337
and breakout on the either side will decide the further direction for it,
so the aggressive traders can trade the range in both side trade with the help
of support, resistance and other critical points mentioned above. Today’s movement indicate that the correction
may not be over therefore short trade can
be tried after a reasonable rise in the appropriate range or on the price
breakdown for taking advantage of the intraday down correction but with extreme
alertness and caution because the long term technical setup is still o.k. as of
now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy if it moves and maintains above 15040 for some time with
a stop loss of 14990. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky
trade.
Or
Buy on decline but not below 14920 with a stop loss of 14870.
It is for aggressive
traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 15180---15240
with a stop loss of 15290. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for
intraday correction.
Or
Sell if it moves and sustain below 14920 for some time with a stop
loss of 14970. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday correction.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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