Thursday, 25 March 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--BANK NIFTY FOR—26.3.2021

 

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Open-33420.75--High-33550.15--Low—32415.25—Close-33006.45 on19.3.2021

Support:32842.30/32718.75/32613.10/32465/32415/31725.85/31650.90/31510.25/31297/31264/30945.20/30893.65/30197.85/29687.70

Resistance33361/33625/34360.05/34568/34658.70/34803.60/34893.25/34973/35428.15/35584.60/35648/35815.75/35884/36086/36397/36455/36466/36477/36615.20/36647/36897/37170/37284/37708.25/38286/38520.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It is exhibiting tremendous weakness and today it breached first two critical and important points of 32613.10 & 32465.45 for the year 2021 intraday, which is very weak indication but it managed to close above these points at the end. Please note that its critical and most important points for the year 2021 are 32613.10---32465.45---31297.30 & 31264.05 and it is  above these points now and as long as it hold these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are placed at 36063.50---35815.75---35648---33625---32612.92(figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of 36063.50---35815.75  & 35648  for last few days so it was  already into deep short term corrective mode  , which can last for 4-7 days or more and on 24.3.2021 it decisively breached its 4th key point of 33625 therefore it is into medium term correction mode now and it can last much longer, lastly and most importantly sustained break below 32612.92 ( it did break this point intraday today)on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and can potentially threaten the uptrend also which may please be noted. 

It was already into deep short term correction mode and on 24.3.2021 it slipped into medium term correction mode which is bad sign. Furthermore it has decisively broken its short and medium term moving averages and some long term technical parameters also and most importantly it has decisively broken its long term rising trend line on 24-3-2021, which indicates that further fall is ahead for sure but with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days. Please note that if it sustains below 33625 on the closing basis then the correction could deepen and it could be more painful also pricewise and time wise both. It is important to mention here that now the pullback rally threshold point is at 33664.52(it can change), if it closes above this point and sustain then it could give a reasonable pullback rally, else down move will continue with very short up move below this point. Kindly note that chances of significant up move from here looks slim at this point of time, however moving up it will face critical resistance at-33361---33625---33664.52---34360.05---34438---34658.70---35062---35687---36460---36650.Similarly going down it can find support at-32842---32612.92---32465.45---31650---31297---31264. It seems that it is in the process of changing the trajectory from uptrend to the downtrend provided it does not bounce back sharply in next couple of days, chances of sharp bounce back looks slim at this point of time. Kindly, note that the short term technical setup and parameters are tremendously weak. Therefore short term bias is negative as of now.

In view of the above observation, it was in deep short term correction mode and yesterday it gotten into medium term correction mode which is even bigger bad sign therefore, long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. Long trade can only be attempted once it closes above the pullback threshold point of 33664.52 else avoid. However aggressive traders can try long trade on decline and the possible buy point for the day could be near 32612 & 32465 avoid buying below 32465 for sure because if it could sustain below this point it could go for an accelerated fall.  Please note that long trade in deep corrective mode could be a risky proposition. Since it is in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near 32612 or 32465 with a stop loss of 32390. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell if it remains below but near 33625 in first one and half hour of trade with a stop loss of 33725. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in weak market.

Or

Sell on the rise near or within the range of 33850---33950 with a stop loss of 34100. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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