A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX--NIFTY--4-12-2017

 CNX-NIFTY

Open-10263.70—High-10272.70---Low—10108.55---Close—10121.80 on 1-12-2017

Support: 10108.15/10094/10043.65/9955/9943.

Resistance: 10137.85/10157.11/10178.95/10251.85/10307.30/10309.55/10340.20/10409.55/10411.16/10451.65/10453/10461.70/10485.75/10490.45/10536.52/10590.15.                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

For-4-12-17 the intra-day short support and resistance levels are given here-under:-

Support: -10108.15/10094/10085.78/10043.65/9969/9955/9943. 

                                                                                                           

Resistance: 10130/10137.85/10157.11/10178.9510149/10200/10251.85/10286/10307.30/10309.55/10340.20/10409.55/10411.16/10451.65/10453/10461.70/10485.75/10490.45/10536.52/10590.15.

The impulse down move of 30-11-17 was followed by another big fall today and it closed with a loss of 104.75 points, it indicates that the final top may be in place at 10490.45 which it made on 6-11-2017. Furthermore it had already established lower top at 10409.55 on the bar chart and at 10399.85 on the line chart, but yet to break its recent major bottom of 10118.05 & 10094 on the line and bar chart respectively and once it breaks and sustain below these bottoms then it can be convincingly said that it has topped out at 10490.45 and could get into a deep correction mode now before it resumes the up move again. The technical setup has got severe jolt in last two days and indicates further fall ahead, but as long as it holds the aforesaid bottoms of 10118.05 & 10094 on the line and the bar chart respectively there is a slim ray of hope that it could still bounce back. If it does then it will just be a relief rally and every reasonable rise should be sold into till it moves past its short term moving averages again and sustain above it on the closing basis. Its averages are placed in the range of 10285---10320(it changes every day) for the day.

It is important to mention here that it’s long term moving averages are placed in the range of 9969---9645(it changes every day) and it is not far away . Since it is its long term support range it may bounce back from here, if it does not from the above mentioned point of 10094. But please note that sustained break below 9969 will threaten the uptrend and break below 9645 will put the uptrend in real danger and it may end and in that case it may seek much lower levels. Therefore long trade should not be initiated at all below 9969.

In view of the above observation it is sell on the rise market now, therefore safe trader should avoid long trade completely till it moves above its short term moving averages and sustain on the closing basis. However aggressive trader can try long call if it holds 10094 levels for first two hours of trade with a stop loss of below 10043 and then can try near but not below 9969 with a stop loss of below 9930, long trade could be a highly risky bet at this point of time. Short trade can be tried on the rise and the possible sell point for the day could be in the range of 10204—227---263 with short stop loss of above 10285 but the authentic stop loss would be above 10320 or sell below 10085 with a stop loss of above 10130.

Remark: - The long term trend is still up. But last two days impulse down move has rocked the technical setup and indicates further fall of moderate to sharp intensity cannot be ruled out in coming days/weeks. Therefore long trade should be avoided at least till it moves above its short term moving averages and sustain but can be tried near long term average upper band as suggested above. Short trade seems to be a safer option now so should be tried as mentioned above. The bias is negative as of now and if it does not bounce back sharply in coming week then it may steadily move downwards with in between relief rallies.                                                                                                                                                                                  

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.