NIFTY---A TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM--27-4-2015

CNX NIFTY

CLOSED AT 8305.25 ON 24-4-2015.

Range for the week ended on 24-4-2015 was:-8619.95-----8273.25.

SUPPORT: - 8284.70 / 8282.70 / 8272.80 / 8269.15 / 8180 / 8160 / 8147.95 / 8065.45/7961.15 /7841 / 7723.

RESISTANCE: - 8364 / 8445 / 8470 / 8505 / 8612 / 8626.95 / 8669 / 8788.70 / 8794.48 / 8844.80 / 8849.75 / 8913.45 / 8996.60 / 9119.20.

  

Nifty lost a whopping 346.60 points intra- day during the week and ended the week with a loss of 300.75 points on closing basis, it had a very turbulent week. It is exhibiting gross weakness on the technical chart as it is below all its short, medium and some of the long term moving averages and last of such average is at 8139 for 27-4-15 and break below this mark can put the long term uptrend in real danger, furthermore short and medium term moving averages are advancing for negative crossovers and if it happens and maintain for sometime then it could be devastating for a down move. At present it is hovering around its critical points and recent bottom placed between 8282.70----8269.15 range and it is very likely to break this range in a day or two. Going down it will have a very good support in the range of 8139---8030---7960 and if it violates this range then the next support range is between 7723----7500.

After looking into all the technical parameters I am of the opinion that it has a very strong support area in the range of 8139----7960 and it is most likely to form a bottom in this range possibly either on 28^th or 29^th April, 2015 and may stage a up rally from there, but I am not sure whether the expected bottom would be for good or it could be broken and this can only be judged once bottom is made and then seeing the intensity of the expected up rally . I would therefore suggest to try sell call on 27-4-15 below 8269 with a stop loss of above 8310 for a target of 8190--8150, Please note that the sell position should be squared off in any case in the range of 8139---7960 and long call can be tried around or within this range with a stop loss of below 7960. It is important to mention here that for the resumption of smooth uptrend it has to go beyond the long term moving average upper band which is at 8510 now and sustain and then to cross 8626.95 mark and sustain. Please avoid fresh short call above 8282.70.

 Kindly note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

REMARK:-Long term up trend still intact but threatened and if it moves below 8139 and sustain then long term uptrend may end. So to keep the uptrend going it has to bounce back above 8510 & 8626.95 and sustain. Traders can try both long and short trade as suggested above.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.