CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—54460.40---High—54686.05--Low—54226.60---Close—54461
on 29.9.2025.
Support:54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 54467.35/54576.60/54905.60/55149.30/55475.45/55547.35/55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 71.65 points. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility and it is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has weakened quite a lot , it is already into corrective mode for its earlier rise and also for very recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 55298.70 , it has threatened the long term uptrend and most importantly it is below its short term & major long term rising trend-line , it is making lower top & bottom on the line chart and below key bottom of 55149.30, and most importantly it is below its important & critical support points or range of 54780---54606.25----54521.48---54467.35 so, all together it is giving extremely weak signal and if it does not bounce back above the said range and sustain on the closing basis in a shortest possible time then fall may continue. Moving down further its support point could be at 54312.12, break & sustained close below it can pull it down to 53483 levels but on the way down it may find support at 54174.06---53658.15---53655.65---53606.45(some figure may change) for the month of September-2025 and if it holds this range or points then the chances of resuming the up-move will be faintly alive. Please note that break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall.
Moving down further its next critical & strong support point will be at 53561.75 & 53483.05 and if it does not hold these point on the closing basis then it may witness an accelerated fall and then the final support could be in the range of 53198---52906 (range will change daily), but break & sustained close below this range will trigger fresh fall and long term uptrend would also be in potential danger and then it may head for sharp fall may be with-in-between short relief rallies.
Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 54467.35---54521.48---54606.25----54780---55298.70---55578----55666.35---55835.25---56024---56038.48----56075-----56098.70-----56650.10----56669-------56816-----56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see
the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move
again. Please note that if it moves above the range of 54467.35---54521.48---54606.25----54780, it will raise good hope for extending
the up-move, but to keep the hope alive it has to move above 54467.35
at least and sustain on the closing basis, else it will keep drifting down,
if it moves above 55298.70 and sustain on the closing basis
then it will get out of recent corrective mode then it is likely to extend the
up-move, if it moves above 55578---55666.35 & 55835.25 then it will get
good strength to move-up further, if it moves above the range of 56024---56038.48---56098.70 and
sustain then it will get good foothold and raise
hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above 56650.10 and sustain then it will get out of deep corrective
mode for its earlier rise and if it moves above 56816 and sustain on the closing
basis then it may get back into strong
up- momentum track and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40
or may go beyond it also. It is
into correction mode for its recent & earlier gains, and long term trend is
also threatened.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT;-
POSITIVE
POINTS:-
1. It is
in the oversold zone in the few important technical indicator and VM is in the
buy mode, so it can give relief rally at times.
NEGATIVE
POINTS:-
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are negative and MACD, EV, PS, ADX & ST
are in sell mode, so it may drag it down further.
2. It is
below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart.
3. It is
below all its medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below few on
the weekly chart.
4. It is
below few long terms moving average on the daily chart and the top average is placed
at 54780(figure will change daily) for the day.
In view of the above now there is a possibility that the down move can
extend till it sustains below its
important & key points or range of 54780---54606.25----54521.48---54467.35 on
the closing basis. Furthermore please
also note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in
the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore
further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the
critical resistance & support points and price action for further
directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the important indicators are negative MACD, EV, PS & VM are in the sell mode and RSI is showing negative divergence, therefore further fall looks quite likely in coming weeks .But the only silver lining is that it is in the neutral/oversold zone, so it may have short up-moves at times.
MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in the buy mode such as MACD, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with tilt towards down-side as of now.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE
MARKET NOW;-
It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise
but it is still holding its last key point of 54312.12, therefore
as long as it holds this point on the closing basis it will be buy on decline
market. But short trade can also be tried on the reasonable or sharp rise
near critical resistance points or range or on the price breakdown with strict
stop losses, for intraday corrective
gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is above
its most crucial 2nd bottom of 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis
then the chances of the up-move will be alive.
2. It is
above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 50939 for the month of September-2025, it
is a very strong support point.
3. It is
above its short pullback threshold point of 54174.06(figure may change), sustained close above it may keep the hope alive for
further up-move.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point and also below its medium & deep correction threshold points 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10---55861 & 55629.14 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.
3. It is
below its major first major long term rising trend line which is placed at 55800 for the month of September-2025,
it is a very weak sign.
4. It is
below its first major long term rising trend line which is placed at 56161 for the day, it is a very weak sign.
5. The price action was negative today.
6. It is below its recent
correction threshold point of 55298.70 (figure may change), sustained close below it could drag it down.
7. It is below it short term pullback
threshold point of 54606.25(figure may
change), if it closes above it then it will give some hope for extending
the up-move.
8. It is below
its most crucial 1st bottom of 55149.30, if it sustains below it on the closing basis
then it will slide down further.
9. It is
making lower top & bottom on the line chart.
10. It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 55157---54990--54944---54917---54898---54740(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it down further.
11. It is
below its recent big pullback threshold point of 54521.48(figure
may change), if it sustain below it on the closing basis then down-move can
extend.
12. It is below
its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay
above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it
may drift down.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near
54390 if it holds this point for some time then, with a stop loss of 54190
or can buy if it moves above 54470 and
maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 54300 for a
possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical
support points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 54850—54900 with
a stop loss of 55100 or can sell if it moves below 54310 and
maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 54480. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
