CNX-NIFTY
Open—24204.80—High—24354.55---Low---24145.65---Close----24274.90 on 27.11.2024.
Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.
Resistance:24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened on a positive note and thereafter
had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of
80.40 points. The gap it created on 25.11.2024
is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2-3
trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 23956
levels, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances
of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the
gap someday, which may please be noted.
After yesterday’s consolidation it moved
up today. Please note that if it holds the range of 24158---24097----24019(figure
will change daily) on the closing basis it will show some strength for the
continuation of the up-move but even if it break this range but holds the range
of 23974.50----23893.70 on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move
will be alive and the broad upside target could 24283----24340---24415---24538----24770----25126---25566---25675,
it may correct at any of these point and then may resume the up-move again. But
break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back in the deep
corrective mode again and then it may have sharp down move. It is important to
mention here that the long term uptrend is still under threat and it will only end
once it moves above 24360(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing
basis and finally if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis
then it will pick up the strong up momentum again and may resume the big
up-move again.
The overall chart setup is still weak, it
is already into the deep correction mode for earlier rise, but it is making
higher top & bottom on the line chart, it is above all its short term
moving average now but still below almost
all medium term moving averages on the daily chart, also below almost all short & few
medium term moving averages on the weekly chart & below some short term
moving average on the monthly chart also and most importantly it is still below
one long terms moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend
is still under threat, which is concerning. However almost all the important
technical indicators are positive now with buy mode and huge positive divergence
but in overbought zone, so all together indicators are giving positive signals,
therefore it is likely to move ahead further in coming days provided it holds
the key points as mentioned in the above paragraph. The
medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is still under threat and
the threat will only end once it moves above 24360(figure will change daily)
and sustain on the closing basis.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-
Please
note that if it holds 24097----23974.50
& 23893.70(some figure may
change) on the closing basis then the up-move can extend further for sure, if
it moves above 24360
and
sustain on the closing basis, then it
will end the long term uptrend threat and will immensely help to extend the
up-move and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will
strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too. But to gain a
strong foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to move above the
range of 24536---24596---24721----24880(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25566
& 25675(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it may
gain extraordinary strength and will get into the good up momentum track and
then it can retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it
also.
POSSIBLE
MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-
Moving down from
here it may find good support at 24222-----24104---24097-----23974.50---23893.70----23746-----23684----23629----23563------23510------23449-----23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but
break & sustained close below 24097 will push it into corrective
mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 23974.50 may
end the possibility of an up-move for the time being, break & sustained
close below 23893.70 will push it back into big correction mode if it
sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more
painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each
point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support
range could be between 23563---23449(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure
will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23563---23449
may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263
may accelerate the fall.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE
WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
On the weekly chart almost all indicators
are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only
comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend
a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with
huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end.
Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now
indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the
horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for
further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.
BUY
ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINT & KEY BOTTOM;-
It is
into the deep correction mode but above its recent correction threshold point
of 24097 , above pullback threshold
point of 23974.50 and key bottom of 23893.70 therefore buy on decline is
suggested at appropriate support points till it holds the above points. But
sell trade can also be tried after reasonable rise in the appropriate range for
intraday corrective gains. So both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but it
is still under threat.
2. It is
far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75
& 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.
Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.
3. Six out
of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is
there but in overbought zone , so it may
correct for a while and then may resume the up-move..
4. It has made higher top on the line & bar chart
both.
5. It is above its strong
pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure
may change).
6. It is above all its short term moving averages on the daily
chart and the important average range for the day is between 24158----24074----24042----24019----23977---23931 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move.
7. The price action was positive today
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Please note that almost all indicators
on the weekly chart are also negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode
and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates
overbought condition and negative divergence.
2. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
3. It is into correction deep mode
now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34--
(figures may change). The other
important correction threshold points are at 24097----24047.39---- 23659.18--- 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain
below these points correction will deepen.
4. The long term uptrend is still
under threat as it is below its important threshold point of 24360(figure
will change daily) on the daily chart.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long
trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24222---24200 with
a stop loss of 24140 or long trade can be tried if it maintain above
today’s close of 24274.90 for some time with a stop loss of 24185
for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid. Please note
that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at
critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24460—24490
with a stop loss of 24560 or can sell if it moves below 24190 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24260. It could be a risky trade but can be
tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If
it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating
long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near
the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type
of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable
profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
