CNX-NIFTY
Open—25911.50---High—25993.35---Low---25880.45--Close---25966.40 on 19.12.2025
Support:25856.70/25740.80/25718.20/25669.35/25548.70/25448.35/25318.45/24255.30/25153.65/25079.80/25008.20/24918.65/24882.30/24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24587.70/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24404.70/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.
Resistance:26097.85/26104.20/26246.65/26277.35/26310.45/26318/26335/26357/26365/26404/26448/26497/26549/26590/26650/26678/26694/26842/26995/27001/27095/27212/27293/27375/27510/27824.
OVERALL VIEW
ON THE DAILY CHART:
--
It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process filled the gap of the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 150.85 points. As expected it rallied up today and moved above certain recent key points also, which is a positive sign for moving up further, so watch out how it pans-out in next 2—3 days. It is also important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 25365.15, 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has weakened quite a bit, it is into correction mode for its recent rise, way below its key points for the month of December-2025(mentioned below in the important note) which are important to keep the up momentum on, below the neckline point of inverse head & shoulder pattern, below its 2nd down trend-line, still below quite a few moving average on the daily & weekly chart and to top it all volatility is a deep concern, so all together it is giving weak signal. But the good thing is that it made higher bottom on the line chart, it bounced back above its few recent critical points of 25915.61-----25899----25891—25883----25856.54---25842.95---- 25842.53 and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then the chances of continuation of the up move will be alive, else it will resume the down move again. Break & sustained close below the range of 25915.61-----25899----25891—25883 will weaken it again, break & sustained close below the range of 25856.54---25842.95---- 25842.53 will dampen the chances of up-move for a while and will push it into deep correction mode and will drag it down further. Moving down further it will find its next critical support points at 25740.80---25718.40---25693.25---25669.35---25520-----25369----25318.45 (figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below the range of 25369-----25318.45 may make the correction more painful time-wise & price-wise both and will threaten the long term uptrend as well.
Moving up the key resistance points could be at 26000---26014.92----26088.07---26104.20----26187.74----26199.29---26202.95----26211.85----26246.65----26277.35—26310.45---26325.80---26328—26405---26492 (some figures may change daily or at some point of time) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may halt the up-move for a while. Please note that if it moves above 26000 and sustain on the closing basis then it may move-up further, if it moves above the range of 26088.07---26104.20 then it may gain some strength and can extend the up-move further, if it moves above the range of 26187.74----26199.29---26202.95----26211.85 it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, but to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2025 it has to move above the range 26202.95—26310.45---26325.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may drift down . It is in the strong long-term uptrend, but now into deep correction mode for its recent rise.
INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN
VISIBLE:- If it is above its neckline of 26104.20
and sustains above it on the closing
basis then the maximum upside target could be in the range of 26800-26900 but
the up-move can halt or retreat earlier also. Similarly sustained close below
26104.20 & then below 25718.20 will be a sign of pattern failure and then
it will drift down further.
IMPORTANT
NOTE: - THE IMPORTANT POINTS FOR THE MONTH
OF DECEMBER-2025 ARE 26202.95----26310.45 & 26325.80 AND TO KEEP THE UP
MOMENTUM GOING IN THIS MONTH IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE THESE POINTS ON THE
CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY START TO DRIFT DOWN.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT ON THE CHART;-
POSITIVE POINTS:-
1. It is in the neutral/oversold
zone, so it may rally at times but that may not last.
2. It is above all
its long terms moving average on the daily chart and the top average is placed
at 25369(figure will change daily) for the day.
4. It is above almost
all its medium-term moving averages on the daily, above all on the weekly &
monthly chart.
NEGATIVE POINTS:-
1. All the important
indicators such as MACD, EV, PS, ST, VM & ADX are in the sell mode and RSI
with negative divergence, so down move may happen at times and it can extend
also.
2. It is below few
short term moving averages on the daily chart & weekly chart.
3. It is below few of
its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.
In view of the above observation there is a mixed
possibility and it can swing both ways but with a downward-bias as of now.
Furthermore please
also note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in
the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore
fall also cannot be ruled out in coming weeks & months. Please keep an eye
on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further
directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-
WEEKLY CHART: - Few important technical indicators are positive MACD, EV, ADX& PS is in the buy mode, ST & VM is in the sell mode and RSI is with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, therefore it may witness corrective down move at times.
MONTHLY CHART: -Few indicators are in buy mode such as ST,PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD & VM are in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with slight tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore, further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out, so be watchful.
IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW;-
It is into
deep correction mode for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise
market now till it close above 26104.20
and sustain. But long trade can also be tried on decline or sharp decline near critical support
points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is above its major long-term
rising trend line which is placed at 25344 for the month of December-2025; it could be an important & strong support point.
2. It is above its most critical
points of 23637.65 &
23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up
momentum going in the year 2025, else
it will start to drift down.
3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 25318.45 & 24587.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.
4. It is above its major long-term
rising trend drawn from the bottom of 7511
made on 24.3.2020, which is placed
at 25483(figure will change
and inch up every day) for the day.
5. It is above its major long term downtrend
line which is placed at 25271(figure will
change daily)
for the day, sustained close above it may keep the hope alive for an up-move.
6. It is into correction mode but
still above few of its correction threshold points of 25915.61----25856.54 (figure may change), sustained close above these
points can keep the hope alive for up-move.
7. It is above all(except for one)
its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average
range for day is 25994---25952----25934--25922—25899 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help
it to extend the up-move.
8. It is above its short term
rising trend line which is placed at 25910 (figure
will change daily)
for the day, sustained close above this line can help it in moving up further.
9. The price
action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -.
1. Volatility and wild swing can
be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market
condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming
days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Top
to top rising trend line placed at 26352(figure will change) for the day, break above this could be a highly
positive sign for the up-move.
3. It is into correction mode as
it is below all of its correction threshold points of 26211.85
---26187.74----26088.07---26014.92 (figure may change), sustained close below these
points can pull it down further.
4. It has made lower top &
bottom on the line & bar chart.
5. It is
below the 2nd downtrend line, which is placed at 26077(figure will change daily)
for the day, it is a weak sign.
6. It is below its inverse head & shoulder neckline of 26104.20 and if it
sustains below it then pattern can fail and it can slide down further..
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade
can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25938---25890 if it holds
this range for some time then with a stop loss of 25800 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please
note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be
tried near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 26050---26080
with a stop loss of 26130 or can sell if it moves below 25800
and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25890. It could be a
risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at
all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the
above view.
Kindly note that make your cost your
stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot
market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
Email--- suranank@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.