A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-7.7.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—25428.85—High—25470.25---Low---25331.65---Close---25461 on 4.7.2025.

Support:25445.70/25371/25333.65/25285.55/25234.05/25136.20/25116.25/25079.20/25892.60/24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24494.45/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:25517.05/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 55.70 points. But it is also important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved a bit as it is out of correction mode but it is still showing sign of weakness as it is making lower top & bottom on the line chart and if it is not reversed shortly then it can drag it down. However as long as it manages to hold the range of 25448.47---25387.01----25371(it broke this range intraday today but bounced back to close above it) on the closing basis, then it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it. But break & sustained close below this range will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its recent rise and may dampen the chance of re-testing its all-time high and may drift down. Moving down if it but manages to hold the points or range of 25278---25260.22----25239.36 ( figures may change) then there is a hope that it could still bounce back and may make an effort to resume the up move , but break & sustained close below the range will push it into medium term correction mode for its recent rise, which will be an alert sign for going down, moving down further it will find support in the range of  25203—25164(figures will change daily) it is a good bounce back range, but break & sustained close below the range may trigger fresh fall and then it will find crucial support at its make or break bottom at 24753.15, it could be the strong bounce back support point, but break & sustained close below it  may derail it from the up- momentum track and it may witness an accelerated fall.

Moving down it will find support at 24742.88----24494----24462----24218(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 24742.88 will push it into deep correction mode and will be a trigger point for going down , break & sustained close below the range of  24494----24462 will be a potential trigger point  for going down further and finally break & sustained close below  24218  will threaten the long term uptrend and may drag it down further, moving down  it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and may end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it may witness an accelerated fall. It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but it slipped into short term correction mode today.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 25518----25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35. It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also. Please note that if it moves above the range of 25518----25552and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain strength for the continuation of the up-move and it may get back into strong up-momentum track once it moves above 25670 and sustain on the closing basis. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart, which is a weak sign, but it is above all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up further. Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and majorly in the buy mode such as MACD, EV, PS & ADX but RSI with negative divergence, VM & ST is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone. So there is a high probability of a correction anytime soon. So, in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore it can swing both ways at times with slight downward bias. But please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern,  therefore fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS/ST &EV are in the buy mode, but it is in the deep overbought zone and RSI has negative divergence, so it can correct at times, but overall looks good for extension of the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD & PS in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming   months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  NOW;-

It is out of corrective mode, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds its key point of 25371 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on the rise near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 24128 & 22481 for the month of July-2025, these are the very strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 24753.15 & 23893.70 sustained close above it will help to extend the up-move.

4. It is above all of its correction threshold points of 25448.47---25387.01----25260.22----25239.36--- 24742.88(figure may change), if it sustains above it, it is a positive sign for moving up.

5 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24218 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

6. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 25453---25382----25366----25278---25203---25164(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. RSI is with negative divergence, VM & ST is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times.

3. It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart, which is a very weak sign.

4. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25426----25371 if it holds this range for some time but not below it with a stop loss of 25320, for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25570---25600 with a stop loss of 25690 or can sell if it moves below 25371 or can surely sell if it moves below 25320 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24465 & 25420 respectively. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com