CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—56524.25---High—57705.16--Low—56204.85---Close—56283 on 18.7.2025.
Support:56161.40/56098.70/55957.75/55695/55475.45//55149.30/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 545.80 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 56781, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for now but it will fill the gap one day for sure. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 56233.55,54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has got a severe jolt today, it has broken its short term rising trend-line today which is placed at 56883(figure will change and will inch-up every day) for the day, it was already into short & medium term correction mode, but today it slipped into deep correction mode for its recent rise, it is making lower top & bottoms on the line & bar chart. Furthermore it fell below lot of short and medium term moving averages on the daily & below some on the weekly chart and on top of it all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is giving very weak indication and if it does not bounce back sharply in a shortest possible and moves above certain critical points, then further fall looks inevitable in coming times. However moving down 56098.70 level is a critical support point, but break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall and then moving down further its most critical support points or range could be, 55629.14----55285.91-----54467.35(some figures may change), which is yet again a very strong and important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below the range of 55629.14----55285.91 will push it into medium and deep correction mode for its earlier rise and break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025.
Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 56650.10---56753--56883---56908.08----56929----56935----57043.33----57049.50----57189.04---57313----57376-----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see
the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move
again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above the
range of 56650.10-----56883-----56935 it
will get out of medium & deep corrective mode and may gain some strength,
if it moves above the range of 57043.33----57049.50----57189.04 and sustain on
the closing basis, then it will completely get out of corrective mode and may
make an reasonable effort to extend the up-move, if it moves above the range of
57313—57376 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will gain good strength for the
continuation of the up-move and finally if it moves above 57629
and sustain on the closing
basis then it will get back into strong up-momentum track again. It is in a
strong long term uptrend now, but into short & medium correction mode now.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It still has lower top & bottom on the line &
bar chart; it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart,
below few on the weekly chart but above rest on the weekly & monthly chart,
it is below few of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart, but
above all on the weekly & monthly chart & it is above its long term moving
averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for the
continuation of the up-move. But all the important technical indicators are negative now and majority
of them are in the sell mode now such as MACD, EV, PS, VM,ST ,ADX and RSI with huge
negative divergence. The only positive factor is that it is in oversold zone on
the daily chart, so it can have relief rally at time but there is a high
probability of a correction anytime soon and it is already into correction mode,
so in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore at times it may swing both ways
but with strong tilt towards downside as of now . Furthermore
please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in
the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore
further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be
extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture.
Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price
action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD, PS, ADX & EV are in the buy mode, but RSI is with huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply go down in coming months.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET
NOW;-
It is into correction mode therefore for aggressive traders it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 57050 and sustains and for safe traders till it closes above 57376 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is way
above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30& 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis
then the chances of the up-move will be alive.
2. It is above
all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 53613(figure
will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.
3 It is
above few of its correction threshold point of 55629.14 & 55285.91 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a
strong hope for moving up further.
4 It is way above
its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay
above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it
may drift down.
5. It is above its long
term rising trend-line which is placed at 54556 &50016 for the month of
July—2025.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. All the
important indicators are negative now and majority are in sell mode such as MACD, EV, PS, ST, ADX, VM and RSI is with negative divergence and it is
in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times, it is already into
correction mode now.
3. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its all threshold points of 57189.04----57043.33---56908.08----56650.10 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.
4. It is making lower top
& bottom on the line & bar chart.
5. It is below
all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for day is between 56935--56929--56919---56836---56829---56753(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.
6. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Safe
traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 57050 and
sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds the range of 56283---56205
for some time but not below it with a stop loss of 56050 for a possible intraday gain,
else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market
could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 56550—56600 with
a stop loss of 56740 or can sell if it moves below 56200
and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 56320. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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