A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—5.2.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49538.80---High—50206.60---Low—49482.50---Close—50157.95 on 4.2.2025. 

Support:49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with an up-gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a robust gain of 947.40 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4--5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 49373, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup and technical parameters on the daily chart has improved as it closed above its few key points of 49890---49654.65---49649.06----49408(some figure may change) ,if it sustain above these points the ongoing up-move can extend further, but break & sustained close below 49890 will give weak signal again and break & sustained close below 49654.65 & 49649.06 will weaken it further and will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and break & sustained close below  49408 may potentially end the on-going up-move , however moving down further if it manages to hold the range of 49351---49000(figures will change every day) on the closing basis then it could still bounce back but it may resume the good up move once it moves above 49654.65 and sustain, but break & sustained close below the range of 49351---49000 may end the up-move for sure and it may start to drift down. The short-term bias seems up now, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened and in jeopardy now. The short term bias is up.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50208---50533---50543----50780----50841.90---50860.20----50864-----51101---51204-----51450(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 51101---51204-----51450 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart and  above all its short term moving average on the daily chart and above few on the weekly & monthly chart also, which is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below few of its short term moving average on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart , it is majorly below  its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But five out of seven important technical indicators are positive now with four in the buy mode and huge positive divergence in one, but inching towards overbought zone, therefore, in totality it can the up-move  may be with-in-between down move. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore  buy on decline can be tried  at appropriate support point  with strict stop loss , similarly short trade  can also be tried  after reasonable  rise at appropriate resistance points  with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains.  For safe traders long trade can only be tried if it closes above 49655 and sustains, else avoid.

STRENGTH: -

1. Five out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in four & positive divergence in one.

2. It is above its very short, short, medium & long term pullback threshold point of 48271--- 48748---49271  & 49408(figure may change), sustained close above these points will help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49403---49351---49323---49082-----48952(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.

4. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

5. It moved above its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73---- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 49649.06---49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. Two out of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and in overbought zone.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is still below almost all its long-term moving averages.

6. Its below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49976---49890 with a stop loss of 49620 or can buy if it moves above 50207 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 50000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50800—50900 with a stop loss of 51100 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.