A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—3.2.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49592.55---High—50009.50---Low—48925.45---Close—49506.95 on 1.2.2025. 

Support:49459/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49654.65/49688.80//49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 80.25 points. The gap it created 28.1.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48319, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it is below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But the good thing is that its short term parameters have improved  on the daily chart as it is above its medium & long term pullback threshold points and above all its short term moving averages also, but it slipped into short correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 49498.48(figure may change), however moving down if it holds the range of 49408---49336(figures may change every day) on the closing basis the on-going up-move is likely to extend further and if it moves above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis then it may extend the up move sharply. Please note that even if it breaks the aforesaid range and moves down but hold the range of 49122---48875(figures will change daily) it can still bounce back and may resume the up-move. But break & sustained close below this range will weaken it and it may start to move down and then moving down its most important & critical support points could be at 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756. Please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. The short-term bias seems up now, but medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49654.65---49905---50219---50509---50558----50806----50841.90---50860.20----51124---51184-----51475(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and chances of extending the up-move will immensely enhance , if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 51124---51184-----51475 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It crossed its recent top on the line chart and  above all the short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below all its short term moving average on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart , it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But five out of seven important technical indicators have turned positive and in buy mode in three indicators and positive divergence in one, but inching towards overbought zone, therefore, it can extend up-move if it hold the range of 49408---49336 (range will change every day) may be with-in-between down move. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but  is in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore  buy on decline can be tried  at appropriate support point  with strict stop loss , similarly short trade  can also be tried  after reasonable  rise at appropriate resistance points  with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains.  For safe traders long trade can only be tried if it closes above 49655 and sustains, else avoid.

STRENGTH: -

1. Five out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in four & positive divergence.

2. It is above its very short, short, medium & long term pullback threshold point of 48271--- 48748---49271 & 49408(figure may change), sustained close below these points will help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above  all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49336---49122---49068---48986-----48943---48875(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.

4. It has crossed its recent top on the line chart.

5. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73---- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. Two out of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal and inching towards overbought zone.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. Its below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49336---49240 with a stop loss of 48900 or if it moves above 49593 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 49450 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50150—50230 with a stop loss of 50400 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.