A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.2.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49402.25---High—49702.35---Low—48734.35---Close—49479.45 on 12.2.2025. 

Support:49459/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a flat note and thereafter had both side moves during the day, it had wild swing both ways today and after three days of fall it finally ended the day with a gain of 76.05 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup on the daily chart has weakened a lot as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise therefore further fall looks inevitable in the coming days. But the good thing happened today was that it closed above its short & long pullback threshold point of 49184.50 & 49408 and if it sustains above it then there is a ray of hope that it can extend the up-move, but it will get a strong foothold to build good base for the continued up-move once it closes above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing, else this up-move may end abruptly and it will resume the down move again.  Moving down from here its most important & critical support points could be at 48913---48504---48404(it bounced back from this range today) and then at 47898.35---47844.15 & 47756, it could bounce back from any of these points. Please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods for the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.

  Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49654.65----49880---49981.52----50232.82----50584----50725----50841.90---50860.20----50912-----51045---51254-----51390(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it may give a good foothold and may help to build up a strong up-move, if it moves above 49880 and sustain then it may get some strength, if it moves above 49981.52 & 50232.82 then it will get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 51045---51254-----51390 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart , but it has fallen below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart, below all on the weekly chart and below few  on the monthly chart also, it is  below almost all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is  a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore four out of seven important technical indicators are negative now with three in the sell and in the overbought zone, but the slight comforting thing is that three out of seven indicators are positive also, two in the buy mode and one with positive divergence. Therefore, in totality it is emitting mixed signal now but broadly towards weakness and may move down further in coming day if it does not bounce back above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis in the shortest possible time. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and pullback threshold point is also broken  therefore  it is sell on the rise market now  in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points  with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis

STRENGTH: -

1. Three out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in two & positive divergence in one.

2. It is above its  short & long term pullback threshold point of 49184.50 & 49408 (figure may change), sustained close above these points will help it to extend the up-move.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----50232.12----49981.52--- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. It is in overbought zone and three indicators are in sell mode also.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7 It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49842---49822---49682---49626-----49559----49288(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.

8. It is below its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

9. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 49408 if it hold this point for some time  with a stop loss of 49170 or can buy if it maintains above 49480 for some time with a stop loss of 49350  for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50000—50160 with a stop loss of 50260 or can sell if it moves below 49350 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 49660. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.