A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-9.10.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24832.20--High-25044—Low---24756.80---Close-25013.15 on 8.10.2024.

Support:24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24472.80/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.

Resistance:25078.30/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25847.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

It opened on a positive note and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and finally after 6 days of fall in a row as anticipated it staged a relief rally and ended the day with a gain of 217.40 points. The stipulated time for filling the  gap it created on 30.9.2024(gap figure is 26151.40) is over therefore chances of filling the has receded for the time being but it will fill the gap one day for sure, but the gap of  3.10.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could come up to 25739.20  levels but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted. The chart setup has weakened, it is into the deep correction mode now and today’s rally seems to be a very normal relief rally as of now and if it closes below 24961.48(figure may change) then this rally may fizzle out, else it can extend a bit. Please note that it is below all its short term moving averages and below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart also and most of the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now, therefore all developments together indicates that further fall looks inevitable in coming days with in between relief rallies. Please note that it is below its very important point of 25058 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it can come down to 24753.15(it took support at this level today and bounced back) levels, please note that 24753.15 is a key bottom and good bounce back point, but break and sustained close below this level may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that if it closes above 25067.94 (figure may change) and sustain then there will be some hope that it can extend the up move, if it closes above the range of 25370----25396-----25503----25524---25602-- (figure may change)  it will gain a strong foothold, if it moves above 25714.81 & 25917.64(figure may change) and sustain it may gain good strength for the continuation of the up move and it will get into the good up momentum track if it moves above 26043.29 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but  on the daily chart  it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a short rally any time, it did give a pullback today but it has to be seen how long it can last because overall technical setup is weak and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the daily& weekly chart and sell  mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart and price action is also weak, so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down and the process is on and it may slide further may be with a in between relief rally at times, so keep an  eye on for the positive  price action for the possible relief rally as it happened today. It is in the long term uptrend but the short & medium term bias is bearish as of now.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24961.48----24753.15----25521.63-----24456-----24370-----24099.70-----24074.20----24047.39-----24028----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep correction mode and most importantly break & sustained close below 24961.48 may end the up move started today, break & sustained close below 24753.15 may accelerate the down move further and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it further. and break and sustain close below 24370 can drag it down to 23893.and finally break and sustained close below 24028 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally break & sustained close below 23893.70 and may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below these points on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is into the correction mode therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP CORRECTION MODE NOW, THEREFORE FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 25067.94 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAIN, HOWEVER AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE NEAR CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT STOP LOSS FOR PULLBACK GAINS . IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW, BUT SHORT TERM BIAS IS BEARISH.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. All the seven important technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, sell mode and negative divergence, few indicators on the weekly chart also indicates overbought condition and negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought condition.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24521.63---24047.39----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. It is below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 25365---25370----25396----25503----25524----25603 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

5. The price action was mixed today.

6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart both.                            

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds 24967 for some time with a stop loss of 24900 or can buy if it moves above 25068 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25180—25220 with a stop loss of 25280 or can sell if it moves below 24753 with a stop loss of 24850. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com