A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-3.10.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25788.45--High-25907.60—Low---25739.20---Close-25796.90 on 1.10.2024.

Support:25445.70/25333.65/25285.55/25078.30/24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24472.80/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.

Resistance: 25847.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 13.95 points. Please note that the gap it created on 30.9.2024 is still there and if makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 3-4 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could come up to 26151.40 but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being but it will surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted. The chart setup has weakened a bit, it is into correction now as it is below its correction threshold points and some other key points of 26043.29----25933----25917.64----25866.20-----25847----25817 (figures may change) which is a weak sign. Furthermore it has also below few of its short term moving averages and some important technical indicators have also turned weak, therefore if it does not bounce back above the aforesaid range and sustain on the closing basis in the shortest possible time, then the fall may extend. However moving down from here it has two important support range of-25714.81----25708(figure may change) and then 25587----25505(figure may change) and if it manages to hold the aforesaid range then it could still bounce back else correction will deepen and finally break and sustained close below the range of 25377.55---25333.65----25285.55(figure will change daily) may accelerate the down move. It is important to mention here that if it closes above 25866.20 (figure may change) and sustain then the chances are that it can extend the up move, if it closes above 25917.64(figure may change) it may gain strength but it may get into the good up momentum track only once it closes above 26043.29(figure may change) and sustain.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart but still mildly overbought and most importantly negative divergence is  there on the  daily & weekly chart and sell mode triggered today, so all together it is very concerning,  therefore,  indication based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is  pointing that it could drag it down  in coming days and the process is already on, so keep an  eye on for the positive  price action for the possible up rally. It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but the short term bias is down.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25781------25714.81----25708-------25664-------25587-----25520-----25505-----25484-------25377.55----25333.65----25285.55----25113------25098.32----25078.30-----25064.27----24753.15----25521.63-----24099.70-----24074.20----24047.39-----23944----23893.70---(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, It slipped into the correction mode today as it closed below its correction threshold points and some other key points of 26043.29----25933----25917.64----25866.20-----25847----25817 (figures may change) which is a weak sign, sustained close below the range of 25714.81----25708 and then 25587----25505 (figure will change daily) will deepen the correction, sustained close below the range of 25377.55---25333.65----25285.55 may accelerate the fall and thereafter close below each point will weaken it further and most importantly break & sustained close below 24753.15 may accelerate the down move and finally break and close below 23917 & 23893.70 will threaten the long term uptrend may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below it then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It slipped into the correction mode today therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode , but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE:- IT IS INTO CORRECTION MODE NOW, HOWEVER IF IT COULD HOLD THE RANGE OF 25714.81----25708 (FIGURES MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT COULD STILL BOUNCE BACK, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW.

 STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Two out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

4. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.                                   

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Five out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, sell mode and negative divergence, few indicators on the weekly chart also indicates overbought condition and negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought condition.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64(figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27----24521.63---24047.39----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. It is below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 25933---25847----25817----25708----25587----25505 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

5. The price action was weak today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of  25650---25630  with a stop loss of 25500 or can buy if it moves above 25848 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25780 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25920--25940 with a stop loss of 26000 or can sell if it moves below 25730 with a stop loss of 25820. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com