CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—51161.75--High—51707.15--Low—50903.75--Close—51007 on 9.10.2024.
Support:50947.70/50369.40/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51133.20/51138.90/51750.10/51996.65/52340.25/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on
a positive note and thereafter had volatile moves on the both side during the
day and finally ended the day flat with a meager loss of 14 points. The stipulated time for filling the gap it created on 30.9.2024(gap figure is 53763.20) is over therefore chances of
filling the has receded for the time being but it will fill the gap one day for
sure, but the gap of 3.10.2024 is still there and if it
makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it could
come up to 52817.80 levels but if it fails to fill the gap in the
stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being,
but it will surely fill the gap one day, which may please be noted. The chart
setup has weakened, it is already into the deep correction mode now and after yesterdays
rise and today’s volatile move it is below its correction threshold point of 51350.12(figure may change) for its
recent rise and also below its pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change) which is a weak sign, and if it does
not move above these two points in a shortest possible time and sustain on the
closing basis this relief rally will end and it may resume the down move again,
chances of this relief rally extending looks bleak at this point of time.
Furthermore it is
below all its short term moving averages and below few medium term moving
averages on the daily chart and below all short term moving averages on the weekly
chart also and all the important technical indicators are negative now, therefore all developments together indicates
that further fall looks inevitable in coming days with in between relief
rallies. Please note that moving down from here it has the strong support
points of 50725.76 & 50617(figure may change) it can bounce back
from these points, but break and sustained close below these points can drag it
down to 50370 &49654.65 levels, please note that both point is a key
bottom and good bounce back point too, but break and sustained close below the these
points may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that, if it closes above 51202.74 (figure may change) and sustain then there
will be some hope that it can extend the up move, if it closes above 51732---51892----52402----52430---52487.43---52537
and sustain then it will gain a strong foothold, if it moves above the range of
53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing
basis it may gain good strength for the continuation of the up move and it will
get into the good up momentum track if it moves above 53636.71(figure may
change) and sustain on the closing basis.
It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present, but on the daily chart it is in the oversold zone now, so it may stage a short rally any time, it did give a pullback yesterday but could not sustain because the overall technical setup is weak and most importantly huge negative divergence is there on the daily& weekly chart and it appeared on the monthly chart too and sell mode also triggered on the daily & weekly chart , so all together these developments are concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down and the process is on and it may slide further may be with a in between relief rally at times, so keep an eye on for the positive price action for the possible relief rally it happened yesterday but could not give follow on up move, which speaks of weakness . It is in the long term uptrend but the short & medium term bias is bearish as of now.
Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on
the upside) 50725.76----50691-----50678------50617----50577----50276-----50043---49737----49654.65------49632----49510----49201.72-----49129----48869-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45(figures
may change), it
can bounce back from any of these points, It is already into the deep
correction mode. Please note that now the
range of 50691-----50678-----50577----50276---50043 and then 49737---49654.65---49510--49129--(figure
will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but break
& sustained close below 50678 will threaten the long term uptrend and
thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and
sustained close below 48869 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and
finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing
basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise
both.
It is into the correction mode
therefore it is sell on decline market now in general till it gets out of the
corrective mode, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price
action for intraday gains.
NOTE: - IT IS INTO DEEP
CORRECTION MODE NOW , THEREFORE FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG
TRADE TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 51202.74 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAIN, HOWEVER
AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE NEAR CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT
STOP LOSS FOR PULLBACK GAINS . IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND NOW, BUT SHORT TERM
BIAS IS BEARISH. THE UNDERTONE IS VERY WEAK.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the long-term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. One out
of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating
oversold condition.
4 The price action was positive today
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Six out
of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative and in sell mode,
given negative divergence, but in oversold zone now, so it may give a relief
rally before sliding down further as it did today. Please note that indicators,
on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell
signal and negative divergence too.
3. It has
broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart both and made lower top on
the line chart.
4. It is
into correction mode today as it closed below some of the correction threshold
points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30---51549.93----51350.12 (figures may change). The other important
correction threshold points are at 50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure
may change) and if it sustain below
these points correction will deepen.
5. It is
below some of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51732---51892---52127----52402---52430---52537(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can
accelerate the down move. .
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50725----50617 with a stop loss of 50330 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support
point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51500---51600 with
a stop loss of 51750 or can sell if it moves below 50900 & 50450
with a stop loss of 51150 & 50650 respectively. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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