CRITICAL OBSERVATION ABOUT CNX-NIFTY---29.12.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

It is well placed technically and showing extra ordinary strength and vertically moving up, but the vertical rise is slightly scary because vertical rise may have vertical fall  too at times, even normal correction after the vertical rise could  be upsetting, therefore for investors it is suggested to be watchful and alert and their approach for  investment should  be very-very  stock specific because normally valuation are not cheap any more for almost all the major stocks in large cap, mid cap & small cap at this point of time, therefore look for the stocks with good fundamentals and which have not participated the way they should have been in this bull run, whereas traders can play the good momentum stocks with strict stop loss . Please note that as the market is in the new territory it could move up to any height but it may surprise also at times with very strong down movement, therefore it is suggested to ride the on-going up move very cautiously. 

 IMPORTANT:-- PLEASE NOTE THAT IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21801.45 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS TO KEEP UP THE ON-GOING UP MOMENTUM GOING IN THE YEAR 2024 AND SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW 21731.40 MAY TRIGGER CORRECTION WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO SHARP IN THE INTENCITY. SO BE CAUTIOUS. 

Certain historical and other facts about the market.  

1. Market had been moving in a 8 years’ time cycle since 1992 It sharply corrected in 1992--2000---2008---2016---2020(a break was there because of COVID-19) and the next 8th year cycle ends in 2024. Therefore if this cycle continues then it may surprise with very strong down move in 2024. But there is no sign of it as of now. But caution is advised. 

2. Whenever Nifty ends the year on a high note which it has done today then normally it is difficult for it to maintain the same momentum in the following year , in fact  it corrects sharply.  

3. The deluge of IPO hitting the market for quite some time now is a potential indication that the market is moving towards topping out in the near future.  

4. Mid caps & Small caps stocks are surging ahead irrespective of their financials & fundamentals, which is not likely to sustain for longer time period because eventually good fundamentals & financials only can hold the stock prices. 

5. the large cap stocks are either in the new zone or very near to their all-time highs, therefore they are critically poised and valuations also looks stretched at this point of time. So it could correct any time. 

6. If you look at the TTMEPS of the mid caps & small caps stocks it seems that the December quarter-2023 results may not be that great and it could dent the stock prices. Furthermore almost all the mid-caps & small cap stocks are running at phenomenally high P/E Ratio, which is scary. 

7. Promoters of good companies are encasing by selling their part holding in the company now.  

8. Market is extra ordinarily exuberant and defying all rationales. 

9. Is money making has become so easy in the stock market? If yes then this situation cannot last for long. 

10. If everyone is making money then who is losing? 

Please that all the above observations are pointing that market could be heading for top out in near future, therefore be cautious in the market henceforth. 

 

 But I once again repeat that market is in uncharted territory and highly bullish now and scale any height, but cautious approach is needed because accident do happens in the uncharted territory only.

 

 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654

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