A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—1.1.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21737.65--High—21770.30—Low—21676.90-Close-21731.40 on 29.12.2023.

Support: 21731.40/21607.05/21593/21505.05/21487/21472/21260.90/21078/21050/21037.90/20914.75/20751/20719/20599/20568.60/20475/20390/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19946/19875.25/19867.55/19849.75/19667/19645.50/19635.30/19627/19584.45/19523.40/19492.10/19480/19333.60/19329.10/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/19204.85/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21761/21801.45/21828/21906/21974/22219/22463/22478/22590/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and had both side movement during the day and after 5 days of straight rise it took a breather today and finally ended the day with a loss of 47.30 points. Please note that the gap it created on 27.12.2023 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 21477.15, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap may recede. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 20291) and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week starting from 1.1.2024 or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

It is exhibiting extra ordinary strength therefore the up move is likely to extend further from here with intermittent correction from time to time. It took a breather today but break below 21606.83---21557.91---21321.69 & 21102(figure may change) will push it into very short, deep short, medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in the long term uptrend and bias is positive as of now and it is still buying on decline market till it indicates otherwise. 

It is very important to mention here that despite very strong up move in last few days,  two out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down in coming days, which is slightly concerning. However other parameters such as chart setup, moving average placements and price action are very strong now., therefore it is likely to continue the up move as long as it holds the level of 21606 (figure may change) on the closing basis , else it may correct and moving down its important support points could be at 21706----21593---21568---21470----21448---21408---21358---21326---21285---21244---21212---21142---21122---20976.80---20950.73---20769.50(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 21761---21777---21801.45---21828---21906--21974(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE OVERALL TECHNICAL SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE BUT FEW TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE DISTINCTLY NEGATIVE WHICH IS CAUSING CONCERN AND CANNOT BE IGNORED OR TAKEN LIGHTLY TILL IT TURNS POSITIVE. BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF THIS IT MAY WITNESS A VERY SHARP DOWN MOVES ANY MOMENT AND LATEST BY 15-1-2024. SO BE ALERT, CAUTIOUS, VIGILLANT AND WATCHFUL IN THE LONG TRADE. PLEASE NOTE THAT TO KEEP THE ON-GOING UP MOMENTUM ON IN THE YEAR 2024 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 21801.45 ON THE CLOSING BASIS AND SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 21731.40 ON THE CLOSING BASIS MAY TRIGGER CORRECTION WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO SHARP IN THE INTENSITY.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 21802 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21720 or on decline near or within the range of 21650--21635 with a stop loss of 21590. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 21150 with a stop loss of 21100 or near or within the range of 21000----20976 with a stop loss of 20900.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21770—21800 with a stop loss of 21830.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com