A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—1.1.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21737.65--High—21770.30—Low—21676.90-Close-21731.40 on 29.12.2023.

Support: 21731.40/21607.05/21593/21505.05/21487/21472/21260.90/21078/21050/21037.90/20914.75/20751/20719/20599/20568.60/20475/20390/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19946/19875.25/19867.55/19849.75/19667/19645.50/19635.30/19627/19584.45/19523.40/19492.10/19480/19333.60/19329.10/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/19204.85/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21761/21801.45/21828/21906/21974/22219/22463/22478/22590/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and had both side movement during the day and after 5 days of straight rise it took a breather today and finally ended the day with a loss of 47.30 points. Please note that the gap it created on 27.12.2023 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 21477.15, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap may recede. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 20291) and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week starting from 1.1.2024 or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

It is exhibiting extra ordinary strength therefore the up move is likely to extend further from here with intermittent correction from time to time. It took a breather today but break below 21606.83---21557.91---21321.69 & 21102(figure may change) will push it into very short, deep short, medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in the long term uptrend and bias is positive as of now and it is still buying on decline market till it indicates otherwise. 

It is very important to mention here that despite very strong up move in last few days,  two out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down in coming days, which is slightly concerning. However other parameters such as chart setup, moving average placements and price action are very strong now., therefore it is likely to continue the up move as long as it holds the level of 21606 (figure may change) on the closing basis , else it may correct and moving down its important support points could be at 21706----21593---21568---21470----21448---21408---21358---21326---21285---21244---21212---21142---21122---20976.80---20950.73---20769.50(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 21761---21777---21801.45---21828---21906--21974(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE OVERALL TECHNICAL SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE BUT FEW TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE DISTINCTLY NEGATIVE WHICH IS CAUSING CONCERN AND CANNOT BE IGNORED OR TAKEN LIGHTLY TILL IT TURNS POSITIVE. BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF THIS IT MAY WITNESS A VERY SHARP DOWN MOVES ANY MOMENT AND LATEST BY 15-1-2024. SO BE ALERT, CAUTIOUS, VIGILLANT AND WATCHFUL IN THE LONG TRADE. PLEASE NOTE THAT TO KEEP THE ON-GOING UP MOMENTUM ON IN THE YEAR 2024 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 21801.45 ON THE CLOSING BASIS AND SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 21731.40 ON THE CLOSING BASIS MAY TRIGGER CORRECTION WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO SHARP IN THE INTENSITY.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 21802 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21720 or on decline near or within the range of 21650--21635 with a stop loss of 21590. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 21150 with a stop loss of 21100 or near or within the range of 21000----20976 with a stop loss of 20900.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21770—21800 with a stop loss of 21830.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com

         

   

CRITICAL OBSERVATION ABOUT CNX-NIFTY---29.12.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

It is well placed technically and showing extra ordinary strength and vertically moving up, but the vertical rise is slightly scary because vertical rise may have vertical fall  too at times, even normal correction after the vertical rise could  be upsetting, therefore for investors it is suggested to be watchful and alert and their approach for  investment should  be very-very  stock specific because normally valuation are not cheap any more for almost all the major stocks in large cap, mid cap & small cap at this point of time, therefore look for the stocks with good fundamentals and which have not participated the way they should have been in this bull run, whereas traders can play the good momentum stocks with strict stop loss . Please note that as the market is in the new territory it could move up to any height but it may surprise also at times with very strong down movement, therefore it is suggested to ride the on-going up move very cautiously. 

 IMPORTANT:-- PLEASE NOTE THAT IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21801.45 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS TO KEEP UP THE ON-GOING UP MOMENTUM GOING IN THE YEAR 2024 AND SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW 21731.40 MAY TRIGGER CORRECTION WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO SHARP IN THE INTENCITY. SO BE CAUTIOUS. 

Certain historical and other facts about the market.  

1. Market had been moving in a 8 years’ time cycle since 1992 It sharply corrected in 1992--2000---2008---2016---2020(a break was there because of COVID-19) and the next 8th year cycle ends in 2024. Therefore if this cycle continues then it may surprise with very strong down move in 2024. But there is no sign of it as of now. But caution is advised. 

2. Whenever Nifty ends the year on a high note which it has done today then normally it is difficult for it to maintain the same momentum in the following year , in fact  it corrects sharply.  

3. The deluge of IPO hitting the market for quite some time now is a potential indication that the market is moving towards topping out in the near future.  

4. Mid caps & Small caps stocks are surging ahead irrespective of their financials & fundamentals, which is not likely to sustain for longer time period because eventually good fundamentals & financials only can hold the stock prices. 

5. the large cap stocks are either in the new zone or very near to their all-time highs, therefore they are critically poised and valuations also looks stretched at this point of time. So it could correct any time. 

6. If you look at the TTMEPS of the mid caps & small caps stocks it seems that the December quarter-2023 results may not be that great and it could dent the stock prices. Furthermore almost all the mid-caps & small cap stocks are running at phenomenally high P/E Ratio, which is scary. 

7. Promoters of good companies are encasing by selling their part holding in the company now.  

8. Market is extra ordinarily exuberant and defying all rationales. 

9. Is money making has become so easy in the stock market? If yes then this situation cannot last for long. 

10. If everyone is making money then who is losing? 

Please that all the above observations are pointing that market could be heading for top out in near future, therefore be cautious in the market henceforth. 

 

 But I once again repeat that market is in uncharted territory and highly bullish now and scale any height, but cautious approach is needed because accident do happens in the uncharted territory only.

 

 

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654

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A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—29.12.2023

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48479.05--High—48636.45--Low—48343.15--Close—48508.55 on 28.12.2023.

Support:48502/48478/ 48272/48220/48166.15/48081/48021/47998/47918/47856/47808/47575/47454/47420/47231/47123/46919.70/46886.90/46850/46484.45/46369.50/46310.40/45905.85/45893.80/45816/45782.75/45655.50/45238.80/45118.05/44949.90/44779.65/44710.55/.43600.35/44547.80/44498.60/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43345.95/43230.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45

Resistance:48574/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up further and hit a yet another all-time high of 48636.45 and finally ended the day with a gain of 226.35 points. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 44951.10), and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

It is exhibiting good strength therefore it is likely to extend the up move with in- between short breather from time to time. But please note that break below 48231.30---48133.94---47360.75 & 47095.12(figure may change) will push it into very short, deep short, medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in the long term uptrend and bias is positive as of now and it is still buying on decline market till it indicates otherwise.

It is very important to mention here that despite last three days strong up move three out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down in coming days, which is slightly concerning. However other parameters such as chart setup, moving average placements and price action are very strong therefore it is likely to continue the up move as long as it holds the level of 48231.30 (figure may change) on the closing basis , else it may correct and moving down its important support points could be at 48133.94---47960---47913---47778--47723---47570---47417----47361---47325---47263---47226---47095.12----46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 48573---48636.45---48717---49024---49568---49696(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE OVERALL TECHNICAL SETUP LOOKS VERY STRONG FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE BUT FEW TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE DISTINCTLY NEGATIVE  DESPITE THE ROBUST RISE IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH IS CAUSING CONCERN AND CANNOT BE IGNORED OR TAKEN LIGHTLY TILL IT TURNS POSITIVE. BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF THIS IT MAY WITNESS A VERY SHARP DOWN MOVES ANY MOMENT AND LATEST BY 15-1-2024. SO BE ALERT, CAUTIOUS, VIGILLANT AND WATCHFUL IN THE LONG TRADE.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 48582 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 48420 or on decline near  48230 with a stop loss of 48050. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 47500 with a stop loss of 47350.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48850---48950 with a stop loss of 49050.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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