Open—14364.90--High—14528.90—Low—14274.90---Close-14504.80
on 13.4.2021.
Support:14467.75/14459.50/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
After the huge fall on 12.4.2021
and since it was near its crucial support range of 14264---14222.80, therefore a bounce back was expected and that is
what had happened today and it moved up and closed with a gain of 194 points. Please note that this up
move can last may be 2-3 days more
but steady and significant rise looks less likely because it is still into deep
short term correction mode which may be kept in mind. Its most critical points for
the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it
is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the
closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is way below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last so many days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and it seems
that it will last long ,but it bounced back above its medium term correction
mode threshold point of 14336.34
which is slightly comforting and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push
it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and
finally sustained break below 12430.50
on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please
be noted.
It is still into deep short term correction mode. It is
decisively below its short and medium term moving averages, furthermore it is
well below some of its long term parameters and some technical indicators are
showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also, which gives potential indication
that further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days off course with in between short relief
rallies from time to time and provided it does not bounce back sharply above its key points mentioned
above, which seems less likely to happen at this point of time. Please note
that despite todays rise it is still below its pullback rally threshold point
of 14528(it can change)so it can
slip down from here also but if it moves
above it and sustain then it could stage moderate to good recovery from here
else down move will continue. It is most
important to mention here that it took support at its long term rising trend
line in the recent fall which is placed at 14275(this figure will rise with
each passing day) for 15.4.2021, so if it breaks this trend line and sustain
then it could witness an accelerated fall, which may please be noted. Going up it will face critical resistance at-14528---14653---14703---14753.55----14811---14840--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that the up move may exhaust or end at any of these points or
earlier also but if it move and sustain above 14888.80 on the closing basis then it could see some steady rise
but to get back to strong up momentum it has to go a long way and move above 15196 and sustain on the closing basis,
chances of which looks very slim at this point of time. Going down it can find critical support at-14467.75—14350---14264.10---14248.70---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term setup is
still holding up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is in deep short term correction
mode and the overall short term technical setup is weak as of now, therefore for
safe trader or otherwise long trade in general should be avoided till it gives
visible indication of correction completion or till it closes above 14528 level. However aggressive traders
can try long trade if it moves above 14528
and sustain for some time or on decline at appropriate points or near 14275 but not below it. I once again
caution you that long trade in deep corrective mode could be risky propositions
and particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode
therefore adopt
sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage
of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline at appropriate points or near 14275 level with
a stop loss of 14210. It
is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and sustain above 14528 for some time with a
stop loss of 14480. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky
trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14780---14830
with a stop loss of 14860. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective
market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it does not move above 14528 in first hour of trade even
intraday with a stop loss of 14560. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in
corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
