Open—14644.65--High—14652.50—Low—14248.70---Close-14310.80
on 12.4.2021.
Support:14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14350.10/14459.50/14467.75/14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It tried for the last 15
days to move and close above its 3rd key
point of 14888.80 it did move above
it twice but could not close above it, therefore as envisaged it moved down
sharply today and closed with a huge loss of 524.05 points. It exhibited tremendous weakness so further fall
from here looks imminent in coming days. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points
now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will
remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and despite
desperate attempt in last 15 days to
move above at least its 3rd key
point of 14888.80 on the closing
basis but it failed, therefore resulted in sharp fall today. Please note that
it has broken its 4th key
point of 14336.34 today pushing it
into medium term correction mode and if it sustains below it then the
correction could last even longer and could be painful too and most importantly
sustained break below 13562.48 on
the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will
potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will
further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.
It was into deep short term correction mode and today it has
slipped into medium term correction mode, which is further bad sign. It has
decisively broken its short and medium term moving averages again today,
furthermore it is well below some of its long term parameters and some technical
indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also, which gives
potential indication that further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days off course with in
between short relief rallies from time to time. Please note that it has
decisively broken the pullback rally threshold point of 14528(it can change)so the up rally has ended for now and if it
moves above it again and sustain then only it could stage some recovery else
down move will continue. Going up it will face resistance at-14336.34---14467.75---14653---14753.55--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that looking at today’s fall chances of a significant up
move from here looks slim at this point of time. It is important to mention
here that that if it sustains below 14336.34
it could hit 13600---13500 levels on
the downside in the coming days. Going down it can
find support at-14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak.
Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term setup is
still holding up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is in medium term correction mode and
the overall technical setup as of now is badly placed therefore for safe trader
or otherwise long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible
indication of correction completion or till it closes above 14528 level. However aggressive traders
can try long trade if it holds 14264 but
not below it. I once again caution you that long trade in medium term
corrective mode could be risky propositions and particularly buying on decline.
Since it is still in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the
price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on
correction completion emerges.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy if it holds 14264 level for some time with a stop loss of
14210. It is for aggressive
traders and could be a highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14470---14530
with a stop loss of 14555. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a
corrective market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14264 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14320. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.