AN ELABORATE TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTYFOR-29.9.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

pen—24818.55—High—24868.60---Low---24629.45--Close---24654.70 on 26.9.2025

Support:24598.60/24589.15/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24694.35/24733.40/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/24882.30/24918.65/25001.95/25079.20/25116.25/25136.20/25153.65/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process it almost filled the gap of the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 236.15 points. Please note that it has been falling for the last 6 days in a row, so it may have a relief rally anytime soon. But it is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 ) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has terribly weakened today as price collapsed, it is already into correction mode for its earlier rise and also for its very recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 25202.35, it is below its short & major long term rising trend-line and most importantly below its key support range of 24753.15 ----24746----24742.88(some figure may change daily), so all together it is showing  extreme weakness and please note that if it does not bounce back above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis in a shortest possible time then downslide may continue with in between short relief rallies. Moving down further its support point could be at 24652----24638----24494---24462.40(H&S pattern neckline)----24432.70---24426.85(some figure may change) , it may bounce back from any of these points or range, but break & sustained close below 24652-& 24638 will dampen the chances of up-move and will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained close below the range of 24462.40---24432.70---24426.85 may deepen the down move further.

Moving down further it’s next immediate and important support point could be at 24370 & 24337.50 it could be a strong bounce back points ,but  break & sustained close below these points may witness an accelerated down-move.

Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  24049----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below 24049 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger, break & sustained close below the range of 23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 may trigger fresh fall and may also end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else  fall may continue. The long term uptrend is still intact but it is already into  correction mode now for its recent & earlier rise.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24742.88---24746----24753.15 ----24823---24911---25054----25202.35----25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35(some figures may change daily or at some point of time) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or rally may halt for a while. Please note that if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a foothold  for moving up further, if it moves above 24823---24911—25054 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get some strength to move-up further, if it moves above25202.35 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent corrective mode and likely to extend the up-move,  if it moves above this range 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25448.47----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of all corrective mode and if it manage to sustain above 25371 on the closing basis then the chances are that it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also, else it down move may continue. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS  AND MOVING AVERAGE PLACEMENT ON THE CHART;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. It is in oversold zone in few indicator, so it may have relief rally at times.

2. It is above all its long term moving averages on the daily,  weekly & monthly chart and the top average is placed at 24638(figure will change daily).

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. All the important technical indicators are negative now, MACD, EV, PS, ST & ADX is in the sell mode and RSI is with negative divergence, so the down move can extend.

2. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart.

3. It is below all its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

In view of the above there is a possibility that it can swing both ways at time but with a tilt towards downside. Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore fall cannot be ruled out in the coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

WEEKLY CHART: - Few important technical indicators are negative MACD,EV,ADX & VM is in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, and it is in the overbought zone, but some indicators are in the buy mode too such as PS & ST therefore it may witness  relief rally at times.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD, EV & ST is in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with strong tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out.

IT IS SELL ON RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and now below its key point of 24753.15, therefore as long as it stays below it on the closing basis it will be sell on the rise market.  But long trade can also be tried after reasonable or sharp decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 22944 for the month of September-2025, it could be an important & strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical second make or break bottom of 23893.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.

4. It is above its recent major pullback threshold points of 24652(figure may change).

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as well as for earlier rise also as it is closed below all its correction threshold points of 25496.48----25448.47----25387.01&24961.04   (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

3. The price action was negative today.

4. It is below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis for a longer period then the on-going up-move may end for a while and it may start to drift down and may witness sharp fall.

5. It is below its very recent correction threshold point of 25202.37; so it in correction mode for its recent rise and if it sustains below it then it can extend the down move.

6. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 25137----25060----25054----25016---24993--24975(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it down further.

7. It is below it short term pullback threshold point of 24823(figure may change), if it closes above it then it will give some hope for extending the up-move.

8. It has made lower bottom on the line chart.

9. It is below its most critical first make or break bottom of 24753.15 sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall.

10. It is below its 1^st major long term rising trend-line, which is placed at 24696 for the month of September-2025, very weak sign.

11. It is below its major long term rising trend drawn from the bottom of 7511 made on 24.3.2020, which is placed at 24746(figure will change and inch up every day) for the day.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24630 if it holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 24580 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24780---24830 with a stop loss of 24900 or can sell if it moves below 24629 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 24715.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com