A ELABORATE TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTYFOR-2.9.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24432.70—High—24635.60---Low---24432.70---Close---24625.05 on 1.9.2025

Support:24598.60/24589.15/24537.60/24502.15/24498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24337.50/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24694.35/24733.40/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/24882.30/24882.30/24918.65/25001.95/25079.20/25116.25/25136.20/25153.65/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and the open was the low for the day and thereafter it had both side moves in the slightly upper trajectory during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 198.20 points. It is important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 on the upside 25340.45) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

After 3 days of straight fall it staged a up-rally today ,but the technical setup is still weak, as it is already into short, medium & deep  correction mode for its recent & earlier rise, it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily &weekly chart, it is below its medium term moving average on the daily chart, making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, all important technical indicators are negative on the daily & weekly chart, it is below its first crucial & key points or range of 24753.15----24742.88----24696(major rising trend-line for the month of Sept-2025)---24652 so all together it is showing weakness therefore down move is still on the horizon in coming days. But the good thing is that it bounced back above it major long term rising trend-line which is drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made on 24.3.2020 and is placed at 24446(this figure will change & inch up every day) for the day and few other critical points of 24426.85---24432.70---24462.40(H&S pattern neckline) ----24477----24494 which is a positive sign and as long as it holds this range chances of up-move will be alive. But it will get back into good up-momentum track only once it moves above the range of -24652---24696---24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that break & sustained below the range of 24494----24462.40----24426.85 may trigger fresh fall.

Moving down further it’s next immediate and important support point could be at 24370 & 24337 it could be a possible bounce back points ,but  break & sustained close below these points may witness an accelerated down-move.

Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23954----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below 23954 will put the long term uptrend in potential danger, break & sustained close below the range of 23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 may trigger fresh fall and may also end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else  fall may continue. The long term uptrend is still intact but it is already into short, medium & deep correction mode now for its recent & earlier rise.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24652---24696-----24742.88-----24753.15----24766----24811-----25153.65---25239.36—25260.22----25371----25387.01----25405----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35(some figures may change daily) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or rally may fizzle as of now it seems that the up-rally may have ended  for a while. Please note that if it moves above the range of 24652---24696---24742.88 --24753.15- and sustain on the closing basis then it is very much likely to extend the up-move, if it moves above 24810 it will gain reasonable strength for extending the up move further, if it moves above 25153.65 it may gain some speed in the up-move, if it moves above the range of 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of all corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, here please note that sustained close above 25371 will raise good hope for extending the up-move further for sure and there would be a distinct possibility that it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. It is in the long term uptrend as of now.

FOR SEPTEMBER-2025:- IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 24432.70---24426.85 & 24337.50 ON THE CLOSING BASIS TO KEEP THE HOPE ALIVE FOR A CONTINUED UP-MOVE IN THE MONTH, ELSE IT MAY DRIFT DOWN FURTHER.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN: - THIS PATTERN IS VISIBLE ON THE CHART AND ITS NECKLINE IS PLACED AT 24462.40. PLEASE NOTE THAT BREAK & SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW IT CAN DRAG IT DOWN AND THEN THE MAXIMUM DOWNSIDE TARGET COULD BE 23256 BUT IT MAY SLIP DOWN FURTHER ALSO OR MAY BOUNCE BACK EARLIER ALSO, THEREFORE PLEASE KEEPS A WATCH ON THE PRICE ACTION THEN.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - PLEASE NOTE TO GET BACK INTO THE STRONG UP-MOMENTUM TRACK IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE THE RANGE OF 24696 &24753.15 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE THE ON-GOING UP-MOVE MAY FIZZLE OUT ANYTIME.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. it is in the oversold zone in some indicators, so relief rally could be there at times and today was one.

2. Volatility method still in buy mode.

3. It bounced back above its long term moving averages and the top average is placed at 24477(figure will change daily).

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart.

2. It is below almost all its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

3. All the important technical indicators such as MACD, EV, ADX,  & PS is in the sell mode and RSI is showing negative divergence on the daily & weekly chart, so it can drag it down further.

In view of the above there is a possibility that it can swing both ways at time but with a  tilt towards downside as of now and till it moves above its important & key points or range as mentioned above. Please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore fall cannot be ruled out in the coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

WEEKLY CHART: - Almost all the important technical indicators are negative MACD, EV, PS & ADX   are in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming weeks .But the only silver lining is that it is in the oversold zone , so it may have short up-moves at times also.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD,EV & ST is in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with strong tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and below its recent key points, therefore it is a sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24753.15 and sustain.  But long trade can also be tried on the reasonable or sharp decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its 2nd major long term rising trend line which is placed at 22944 for the month of September-2025, it could be an important & strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical second make or break bottom of 23893.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.

4. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as well as for earlier rise also as it is closed below all its correction threshold points of 25496.48---25448.47---25387.01---25260.22----25239.36---24961.04 & 24742.88  (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

3. It is way below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 26277.35.

4. It is below its most crucial 1^st bottom of 24753.15, if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will drift down further.

5. It is below all of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24810----24752----24723----24720---24698--24695(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it down further.

6. It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

7. It is below its major long term rising trend-line, which is placed at 24696 for the month of September-2025. It is an extremely weak sign.

8. It is below its recent major pullback threshold points of 24652(figure may change).

TRADING CALL: --

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 24753.15. But aggressive can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 24550---24500 if it holds this range for some time, with a stop loss of 24400 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24740---24780 with a stop loss of 24840 or can sell if it moves below 24404 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24480. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com