A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-18.8.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24607.25—High—24673.65---Low---24596.90---Close---24631.30 on 14.8.2025

Support:24598.60/24589.15/24537.60/24502.1524498.20/24494.45/24473/24462.40/24354.55/24226.70/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23935.75/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24694.35/24733.40/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/24882.30/24892.60/24918.65/25001.95/25079.20/25116.25/25136.20/25222.40/25234.05/25246.25/24255.30/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25548.70/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day flat with a small gain of 11.95 points. It is important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points on downside are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254 on the upside 25019--25340.45) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is still weak, it is into short, medium and deep correction mode for its recent rise, it is below its short term rising trend-line, it is below half of its short term moving average on the daily & below more than half on the weekly chart, below almost all medium term moving averages on the daily chart , furthermore few important technical indicators are also weak, therefore  it is giving a weak indication now, so further fall cannot be ruled out in coming times. But the good thing is that now it is above few of its important points of 24598.60---24494----24462, it is above its first long term moving averages which is placed at 24404 (figure will change every day) for the day and most importantly it is above its major rising trend-line which is drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made on 24.3.2020 and is placed at 24309(this figure will change & inch up every day) for the day, these are the positive sign for the continuation of the up-move , but break & sustained close below 24598.60 may trigger fall again, break & sustained close below the range of 24494----24462 will weaken it further and finally   break & sustained close below 24404 & 24309 on the closing basis may trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated down-move.

Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of 23919----23893.70----23869.65—23807.30(some figure may change) , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will still be faintly alive, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and the long term uptrend will be in potential danger and may also end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good  up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else  fall may continue. The long term uptrend is still intact but it is already into short, medium & deep correction mode now for its recent rise.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24652----24742.88 ----24753.15----24768.35----25239.36—25260.22----25371----25387.01----25405----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35(some figures may change daily) It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also. Please note that if it moves  above 24652(pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it could possibly move-up further, if it moves above the range of 24742.88 ----24753.15----24768.35---24782 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and raise good hope for extending the up-move for sure,  if it moves above the range of 25239.36—25260.22----25371----25405----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of all corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, here please note that sustained close above 25371 will raise good hope for extending the up-move further and there would be a distinct possibility that it could retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. It is in the long term uptrend, but into short, medium and deep correction mode now for its recent rise.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - THE KEY POINTS FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST-2025 ARE 24598.60---24753.15 &24768.35 IT HAS TO MOVE& REMAINABOVE THESE POINTS FOR AN UP-MOVE TO CONTINUE, ELSE IT WILL DRIFT DOWN. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE ON-GOING UP-MOVE SEEMS TO BE JUST A RELIEF RALLY ONLY AND MAY NOT LAST LONG AND  CAN FIZZLE OUT ABRUPTLY TILL IT CLOSES ABOVE 24753.15 & 24768.35 AND SUSTAIN.  

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

POSITIVE POINTS:-

1. on few technical indicators it is in the oversold zone and RSI is showing positive divergence and PS, EV & ST is in buy mode, so it may give strong relief rally at times.

2. Volatility method showing a buy signal.

3. above all its long term moving averages and first average is placed at 24404(figure will change daily)

NEGATIVE POINTS:-

1. below half of its short term moving average on the daily & below almost all on the weekly chart.

2. below almost all medium term moving average on the daily chart.

3. Few important technical indicators are negative such as MACD and ADX is in the sell mode.

In view of the above there is a probability that the down move may continue with in between relief rally at times. Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

WEEKLY CHART: -  Almost all the indicators are negative and MACD,EV,PS & ADX   are in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence, therefore further fall  looks  inevitable in  coming weeks .But the  only silver lining  in the dark cloud is that it is in the oversold zone, so it may have short up-moves at times.

MONTHLY CHART:-Few indicators are in buy mode such as ST, PS & ADX, but key indicator such as MACD is in the sell mode, it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators are painting a mixed picture now with strong tilt towards down-side as of now; therefore further fall in the coming months cannot be ruled out.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into correction mode now therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24769 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 24309 & 22712 for the month of August-2025, these are the very strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical second make or break bottom of 23893.70 sustained close above it will keep the hope alive of resuming the up-move again.

4. The price action was positive today.

5. It has made higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 25496.48---25448.47---25387.01---25260.22----25239.36---24742.88 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

3. It is way below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 26277.35.

4. It is below half of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24758----24741----24655----24621---24579---24569(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down further.

5. It is below its most critical first make or break bottom of 24753.15 sustained close below it may derail it from the up-momentum track.

6. It is below its recent pullback threshold point of 24652(figure may change), if it sustain below it chances of up move may dampen.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 24769 and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 24612-- 24599 if it holds this range for some time, but not below it with a stop loss of 24550 or can buy on sharp decline near or within the range of 24404---24350 with a stop loss of 24290 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24750---24770 with a stop loss of 24820. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com