A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—4.8.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—55897.15---High—56097.60--Low—55562.10---Close—55617.60 on 1.8.2025.

 

Support:55475.45//55149.30/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55695/55957.75/56098.70/56161.40/56204.85/56594.25/56623.60/57049.50/57276.55/57312.75/57363.70/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 344.35 points. But it is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) , which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and it is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup  is weak ,  it is into  short, medium and deep correction mode for its recent rise and into medium correction mode for its earlier rise, it is  below its multiple  rising trend-line, it has made lower top & bottom on the  line & bar chart,  below all its short term moving average on the daily & few below weekly chart also & below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart , furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is giving a very weak indication and if it does stage a sharp bounce back and move above certain key points and sustain on the closing basis then further fall looks inevitable. Moving down further its most critical support points or range could be  55547.37----55285.91-----54869-----54467.35----54012(some figures may change daily), which is yet again a very strong and important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below 55547.37 may trigger fresh fall, break & sustained close below 55285.91 will push it into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, break & sustained close below 54869 will break its major long term rising trend-line and it may trigger fresh fall,  break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025 and it may head down with an accelerated pace and finally if it moves below 54012 and sustain on the closing basis then long term uptrend will be under threat .

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 55629.14----55965---- 56038.48---56098.70---56204.85-----56483---56494----56650.10----56687----56908.08----56961.95----57043.33---57049.50----57189.04---57213-----57376----57566---57629(some figures may change)(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above 55629.14 it will get out of medium term corrective mode for its earlier rise, if it moves above the range of 55965---- 56038.48---56098.70 then it will raise some hope for extending the up-move, if it moves above the range of 56483---56494----56650.10---56687 then it will gain good foothold and will get out of deep corrective mode for its recent rise and may continue the up-move, if it moves above the range of  56908.08----57043.33---57049.50----57189.04 and sustain on the closing basis then it will completely get out of corrective mode and may extend the up-move further and if it moves above 57213 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back into strong up- momentum track and may retest its all-time high of 57628.40 or may go beyond it also. It is in a long term uptrend, but into deep correction mode for its recent rise.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - THE KEY POINTS FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST-2025 ARE 55547.35---55897.15 & 55961.95 IT HAS TO MOVE & REMAIN ABOVE THESE POINTS FOR AN UP-MOVE TO CONTINUE, ELSE IT WILL DRIFT DOWN.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar  chart both, it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily  & below few on the weekly chart and above rest on the weekly & monthly chart, it is below few medium term moving average on the daily chart, but above rest of the averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and finally it is above all the long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is more or less a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. But all the important technical indicators are negative now and majority of them are in the sell mode such as MACD, EV, VM,ST, PS, ADX and RSI with huge negative divergence, so further fall looks inevitable, but the only positive factor is that it is in the oversold zone , so it can have a relief rally at times but that may not last long, therefore there is a high probability of a correction anytime soon and it is already into deep correction mode, so in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore at times it may swing both ways but with a tilt towards downside as of now. Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart major important indicators have turned negative such as MACD, EV,ST, are in the sell mode and RSI is with huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a concern, so it can correct deeply at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart are not that great for an up-move, which is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply go down in coming months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode now therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 56687 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30& 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 54012(figure will change every day),close below this point would be a threat to the long term uptrend.

3 It is above few of its correction threshold points for earlier rise & 55285.91 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong hope for moving up further.

4 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

5. It is above its long term rising trend-line which is placed at 54556 &50016 for the month of July—2025.

6. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. All the important indicators are negative now and majority are in the sell mode such as MACD, EV, PS,ST, ADX, VM and RSI is with negative divergence, so, it can correct at times and it is already into deep correction mode now.

3. It is into short, medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and medium correction mode for its earlier rise as it closed below  its threshold point of 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08-----56650.10---55629.14  (figure may change), sustained close below these points can drag it down much lower.

4. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 56687---56494--56483---56456---56287---56221(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may continue with the down-move.

5. It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 55547 if it holds this point for some time but not below it with a stop loss of 55400 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55890—55965 with a stop loss of 56100 or can sell if it moves below 55547 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55680. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.