A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—4.6.2025

                                                        CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—56104.80---High—56161.40---Low—55455.80---Close—55599.95 on 3.6.2025.  

 

Support:55499.65/55209/55097/54924/54815/54772/54604/54593/54467.35/54176.45/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55646//55691.95/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56193/56307/56721/56767/57051/57850.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 303.45 points. It is important to mention here that it has recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup has weakened a bit, and its see-saw movement every other day is a matter of deep concern and possibly can drag it down sharply in coming days. It tried to retest its previous all-time high of 56098.70 for the past more than 25 trading sessions and finally it  hit a new all-time high of 51161.40 today but could not sustain at the upper level even for a minute and slipped down, today’s movement was weak very  and  if it does not bounce back above 56098.70 in the next few days or in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it can slide down further, furthermore it slipped into very short correction mode for its recent rise , therefore further fall is very much on the horizon. However moving down if it manages to hold the range of 55576----55529.31 (some figure may change) on the closing basis, then it could still resume the up-move, but break & sustained close below this range will push it into deep correction mode for its recent rise and it may head down.  However moving down as long as it holds its important range of 55375----55163--55151( figures will change every day), the chances of resuming up-move will be alive and it can bounce back from this range, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall again and moving down it will  try to find support at its most critical points or range of, 54467.35--54460.45----54176----54166.73----54117.22, it is a very strong bounce back range and if it holds this range then the chances of up move will be alive. But break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025 and break & sustained close below the rest of the range will trigger fresh fall again and it may derail the up-move for good or for a while and then moving down next support points could be at 53959.60---53887.09----53483.05, it may bounce back from these points, but break & sustained close below 53483.05 may witness an accelerated fall and it will get into deep correction mode. It is in the long term uptrend, but in a short term correction mode as of now.

Moving up the resistance points could be at 55700---55755.69---55896.24----55958-----56098.70----56159----56193----56256----56721,(some figures may change daily) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. But if it moves above 55700----55755.69 & 55896.24 and sustain on the closing then it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move, else it may keep drifting down with in between correction..

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making higher top & bottom on the line chart, it is above its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for moving up further. But few important technical indicators are still negative and in the sell mode such as MACD, ST& RSI is in tandem for now but earlier negative divergence still exist and it is in the overbought zone, but few indicators are positive also and in the buy mode such as EV,PS & ADX , therefore in totality it is giving mixed signal now so it can swing either way, but with slight  positive bias now .But earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD,ST, PS, ADX & EV are in the buy mode, but negative divergence in RSI is there and in the overbought zone, which is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD,ST,PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly  chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply drag it down in coming months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 55377---55151 and finally the range of 54467.35---54117.22. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

2. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 52 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

4 It is above its few correction threshold point of 55529.31----54460.45 & 54117.22 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong indication for moving up further.

5. It has made higher top & bottom today on the line chart again.

6 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

7. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 55575--55492--55455---55377---55163--55151(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

8. It is above its long term rising trend-line which is placed at 53824 &49332 for the month of June—2025.

9. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators are still negative and into sell mode on the daily chart such as MACD & RSI in tandem now but earlier divergence exist and in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times.

3 It is into correction mode as it is below few of its correction threshold point of 55896.24---55755.69 (figure may change) sustained close below these points is a weak sign and can drag it down.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 55400----55200, but not below it with a stop loss of 55000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55960—56140 with a stop loss of 56200 or can sell if it moves below 55450 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 55620 . It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.