A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—16.6.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—55149.30---High—55688---Low—55149.30---Close—55527.35 on 13.6.2025.     

 

Support:55499.65/55209/55097/54924/54815/54772/54604/54593/54467.35/54176.45/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55646/55691.95/55740/55827/55875.75/55957.75/56098.70/56161.30/56307/56696/56752/56810/57098/57406/57715/57850/58060/58648/58714/58976/59541.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with a huge down gap and thereafter had both side moves in the lower trajectory during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 555.70 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 55968.50, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for now but it will fill the gap one day for sure. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup has got a jolt today,  it’s see-saw movement every other day is a matter of deep concern and possibly can drag it down sharply in coming times and the process has begun. It has broken its two strong layers of support range, furthermore it is below all its key lines such as rising upper channel,  rising trend line, down trend line, below all short term moving average and few medium term moving average also and  into deep correction mode for its recent rise, so, all together it is a very weak indication, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming times, provided it does not make sharp recovery in a day or two and moves above the critical points and sustain. However please note that moving down it will  try to find support at its most critical points or range of, 55186.86----54843.63-----54644----54467.35( some figures may change), it is a very strong and important bounce back range and if it holds this range then the chances of up move will be alive. But break & sustained close below 55186.86----54843.63---54644  will push it into medium and deep correction mode for its earlier rise and break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025  and will trigger fresh fall again and it may derail the up-move for good or halt it for a while and then moving down next support points could be at 53959.60---53887.09----53483.05, it may bounce back from these points, but break & sustained close below 53483.05 may witness an accelerated fall and it will get into deep correction mode. It is in the long term uptrend, but in a short term correction mode as of now.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 55597.75---55730----55955---56098.70---56163----56207.82---56465.90----56752---57060---57206----57406----57715----57849---58060---58714,(some figures may change) (for in between resistance point see the resistance table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. But if moves above 55597.75(pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then there will a hope that it can move up-further, if moves above the range of 55730---55955 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain some strength for moving up further, if moves above the range of 56098.70---56465.90 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of corrective mode and may make an effort to resume the up-move again, else it may drift down further. But it is in a strong long term uptrend as of now, but into correction mode now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today, it fell below all its short term moving average on the daily chart after a long time, but above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for moving up further. But all the important technical indicators have negative now on the daily chart and majorly in the sell mode such as MACD, ST, EV,PS,ADX, VM and RSI is with huge negative divergence, and above all price action is also weak so negative indicators are a huge concern. The only silver lining is that it is in neutral/oversold zone, so may have a short relief rally. Therefore please note that in totality it is giving mixed signal and likely to swing either way with a huge downward bias as of now. Furthermore earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into correction mode now, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments because it is sell on the rise market now. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD, PS, ADX & EV are in the buy mode,  RSI in tandem now but earlier negative divergence still exist and it is in the overbought zone & ST is also in the sell mode, which is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD,ST,PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly  chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply drag it down in coming months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It has gotten into correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it moves above 56098.70 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

2. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 52485(figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

4 It is above its few correction threshold point of 55186.86 & 54843.63 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong hope for moving up further.

5 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

6. It is above its long term rising trend-line which is placed at 53824 &49332 for the month of June—2025.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Al important technical indicators are weak on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times and it already in the corrective mode now.

3 It slipped into deep correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold points of 56465.90---56207.82 (figure may change) sustained close below these points may witness an accelerated fall.

4. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 56168--56106--56024---55946---55721(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may help it to extend the down-move.

5. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

6. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 55250---- 55190 but not below it with a stop loss of 55000, for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55850—55950 with a stop loss of 56100 or can sell if it remains below the range of 55600---55750with a stop loss of 55900 or can sell if it moves below 55149 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55400. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.