CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—55414.30---High—55961.20---Low—55243.55---Close—55647.20 on 22.4.2025.
Resistance: 55740/55827/56159/56307/56721/56767.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and hit a fresh new all-time high and finally ended the day with a gain of 342.70 points. The gap it created on 21.4.2025 & 15.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3---4/ 1 respective trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 54407 & 51244, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The overall technical setup is extraordinarily strong for the continuation of the up-move and again it hit a new all-time high today, so, technically everything looks good for the extension of the up-move , but the vertical rise of more than 6800(intraday) points in the last nine days with unfilled gaps and the deep overbought zone makes it highly vulnerable for a correction any time soon and you are well aware that vertical rise may have vertical fall too at times, furthermore market seems to be in hurry for going up without any fundamental shift or change so, crash like situation may also develop in coming times, therefore be extremely alert and vigilant in the long trade. Please note that moving down 54467.35 will be a strong support point and thereafter 54355.40 & 54012.17 points, break & sustained close below 54467.35 will be a warning sign and break & sustained close below 54355.40 & 54012.17 will push it into short & deep correction mode for its recent rise and can drag it down lower. The trend is hugely bullish but I once again reiterate that in view of the vertical rise and unfilled gaps it could correct sharply any time soon, so, ride the on-going rally with utmost caution and alert.
Moving up the resistance points could be at 55740---55827---55961----56159—56307—56721—56767, it could correct at any of these
points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a
while.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It is making higher top & bottom on the line and bar chart;
it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily,
weekly & monthly chart, which is positive sign for moving up further.
Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive and in
the buy mode now, but it is in the deep overbought zone. But in totality it is looking very strong for extending the
up-move further, but vertical rise, unfilled gaps and overbought zone is
concern now, so it may correct any time soon.
So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points
and price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is buying on decline market now till it holds 54467.35 and then 54355.40 & 54012.17 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now and in the buy mode.
2. It is way
above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then
the chances of the up-move will be very good.
3. It is
making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
4. It is above
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down.
5. It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 53333--53115--52385---52361---51974----51797(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.
6. It is above
all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51363 (figure will change every day). Close
below this point will be a warning signal.
7. It is well
above its short & deep correction threshold points of 54355.40
& 54012.17 (figure may change) for its recent rise.
8. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in
the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade for safe trader can be tried
on decline near 54467.35 but not
below it with a stop loss of 54000, but aggressive traders can also
try long trade on decline near or within the range of 55400---55300 with a stop loss of 55190 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 56190—56290 with
a stop loss of 56450 or
can sell near 55961 if it does not cross it even in intraday in first
one and half hour of trade then with a stop loss of 56190.It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position,
but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point
and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be
squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the
trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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