A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—11.4.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—50487.10---High—50496.90---Low—49910.85---Close—50240.15 on 9.4.2025.   

Support:50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 270.85 points. The gap it created on 7.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3—4 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 51361, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup is still weak as it is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and the long term uptrend is threatened as it is below most of its long term moving averages. Furthermore it slipped below its first make or break bottom of 50369.40, which is a warning sign and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then it will slide down further.  However, if it manages to hold its recent fall pullback threshold point of 49843(figure may change), its last long term moving average which is placed at 49709(figure will change daily) and its second critical or make or break bottom of 49654.65 then the hope of moving up will be alive, but break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and the up move may end for a while and it will also put the long term uptrend in potential danger.  Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---49300---49163---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range can take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.

Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 50268---50369.40----50548----50611----50701----50841.90----50860.20----50863-----50954---51010----51340-----51378---51483 (some figures may change daily), it can correct at any of these points, but if it moves above 50369.40 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get good foothold to move up further, but to keep the hope of up-move alive in the Year-2025 it has to move above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis else it may start to drift down again, if it moves above the range of 50954---51010----51340 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it is likely to extend the up-move for sure, if it moves above 51483 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95 or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it sustains above 52063.95 on the closing basis then the next broad resistance or target points could be at 52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move or rally can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest one of its top of 53888.30 and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.     

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top & bottom on the bar & line chart both, it is below all its short moving average on the daily chart & above all on the weekly & mostly above on the monthly chart, it is mostly below its medium term moving average on the daily & few below on the weekly chart, and most importantly it is below more than half of all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is concerning.  Furthermore most of all the important technical indicators have turned negative and in the sell mode  and also in the overbought zone, so, it may correct further , provided it does not sustain above its crucial support point as mentioned in the above paragraph. So, it is in totality it is emitting mixed signal now, therefore can move either side, but as of now slightly tilted towards down side.  So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are positive now and majority of the indicators are in the buy mode, but there is a negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds 49654.65 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode.

3. It is above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above its most crucial bottoms of 49654.65, if it sustains above it  on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

5. It is above its recent fall pullback threshold point of 49843 (figure may change), sustained close above this may help it to extend the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.

3. It has made lower top & bottom on the bar chart and lower bottom on the line chart.

4. It is below its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).

5. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

6. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51024--50820--50764---50688---50392----50278(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness an extended down move.

7. It is below more than half of all its long-term moving averages now and the whole range is between 51340---49709 (the range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain above 49709(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the hope of up-move will be alive.

8. It is below its most crucial and first makes or break bottom of 50369.40, if it sustains below it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will dampen.

9. The price action was positive today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50050---49950 but not below it with a stop loss of 49830 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50680—50800 with a stop loss of 50950 or can sell if it moves below 49860 and maintain for some time, then with a stop loss of 50100. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.