A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-5.3.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—22974.45—High—22105.05---Low---21964.60--Close---22082.65 on 4.3.2025.

Support:21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:22104.85/22124.70/22165/22281/22303.80/22525.65/22625.30/22768.40/22775.70/22786.90/22794.70/22976.85/23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 36.65 points. It is important to mention here that it has been falling for the last 10 days in a row, so it may stage a short relief rally in coming days but that rally may not last. The gap it created 28.2.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 2-3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 22508.40 & 22720.30, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. The stipulated time for filling the gap it created on 24.2.2025 (gap point -22720.30) is over.. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup on the chart is terribly weak, as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise, it is also below all its pullback threshold points and most importantly it is well below its major long term rising trend line, it is below its most critical support points of 22281 & 22165 and 22124.70 & 22104.85, please note that to keep the hope of an up-move alive in the month of March-2025 it has to sustain above the range of 22124.70 & 22104.85, but for a meaningful up-move it has to move above 22165 & 22281 and sustain on the closing basis, but it is below all these points and if it sustains below it on the closing basis for a longer time then further fall looks inevitable in coming times and it is likely to slide down to 21281---21137—21021.88 or lower levels, but on the way to it other support points would be at 21821---21777.65---21710---21530 and it can bounce back from any of these points but break below each point will weaken it. It is important to mention here that if it moves below 21021.88 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into confirm bear market territory and most importantly if it stays longer below it then it may witness extreme pain price-wise & time-wise both. It is important to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart  and its technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods for the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.

It is important to mention here that the major long term trend line which was drawn from the bottom of 7511.10 made on 24.3.2020 is decisively broken after almost five years, which is a very weak sign and if it does not bounce back above it in a shortest possible time, then it may witness an accelerated fall. Please note that the trend line is placed for the month of March-2025 at 23150

Moving up the other key resistance points would be at 22104.85---22124.70---22165---22281---22400----22648---22795----22983---23380---23489----23637.65----23644.80------23893.70----23950----23958----24070----24091----24200(some figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 22104.85---22124.70---22165 & 22281 and sustain on the closing basis then it will give a ray of hope for an extended up-move, if it moves above 22400---22648 & 22795( it is a short & medium pullback threshold point & a key resistance point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may give some hope to move up further, if it moves above 22983  which is a long pullback threshold point then it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move, if it moves above 23380 and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen further but to keep the hope of strong up move alive in the 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 24070----24091----24200 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still  below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain and it will be fully negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, all the seven important technical indicators are negative now and maximum are in sell mode, but the comforting thing is that is in the oversold zone, so, it may rally at times but here please note that it can remain in the oversold zone for a long time in a weak market and a meaningful relief rally may not happen, therefore, broadly it is emitting weak signal, so, further fall looks inevitable in coming times with in between short relief rally at times. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart with huge negative divergence and MACD in the sell mode but it is in the oversold zone. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below all its pullback threshold point  therefore  it is sell on the rise market now  in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points  with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 22502 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the oversold zone, please note that it can remain in oversold zone for a longer period of time in a weak market.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates oversold condition, negative divergence and MACD in sell mode.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with almost all in the sell mode.

5. It is below all its long-term moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

6. It is below its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 22---22---23 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can weaken the chances of an up-move and it starts to moves down.

7. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

8 It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 22929----22760----22668----22556---22487---22391(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.

9. It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

10. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it moves above 22125 and maintain for some time, then with a stop loss of 22060 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22240----22280 with a stop loss of 22330 or can sell if it remains below 22104 for some time  then with a stop loss of 22170. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com