A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—5.3.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47942.50---High—48374.90---Low—47924.75---Close—48245.20 on 4.3.2025.                                                                          

Support:48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:48292.25/48525.60/48636.45/48734.35/48906.05/48972.55/49057.40/49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 130.90 points. The gap it created on 28.2.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 2--3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 48628, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is weak, as it is below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart and some below weekly & monthly chart also and some with negative crossover; furthermore it is below its short, medium & long pullback threshold points. Please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the month of March-2025 it has to stay above the range of 48334.70---48078.70 but for the last two days it is closing within this range, which is a weak indication. So, all together it is exhibiting weak undertone, and therefore further fall looks inevitable in the coming days. However moving down its recent critical support points would be at   47898.35---47844.15--- 47756 & 47745, and this is a very strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time period can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. Please note that looking at the overall chart setup and technical parameters on the weekly & monthly chart, it is likely to hit 44500 or lower in coming times as of now.  It is important to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart  and its technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods for the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 48502.21---49268.39----49405.05---49654.65----49720---49981.52-----50031----50352----50462----50626----50841.90---50860.20----50954---51110-----51290(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above its pullback threshold range of  48502.21---49268.39----49405.05(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis, then it will enhance the chances of moving-up further, if it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold which may help it to build up base for extending the up-move, if it moves above 49720 and sustain then it may strengthen further, if it moves above 49981.52 then it will get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50954---51110-----51290 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.14----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.14 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & majorly below on the weekly chart also, and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore all the seven important technical indicators are negative now with majorly in the sell mode, but the only comforting thing is that is in the oversold zone, so, it may rally at times but here please note that it can remain in the oversold zone for a long period of time in a weak market and a meaningful relief rally may not happen, therefore, broadly it is emitting weak signal, so, further fall looks inevitable in coming times with in between short relief rally at times. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below all its pullback threshold point  therefore  it is sell on the rise market now  in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points  with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the oversold zone, please note that it can remain in oversold zone for a long period of time in a weak market.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and sell mode MACD.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49981.52---49368.02 (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. Almost all out of seven important technical indicators are negative with major indicators in the sell mode.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

8 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49266---48974---48915---48769-----48673----48555(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down-move.

9. It is below its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48502.21---49268.39----49405.05 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can take it down further.

10. It has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

11. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 48133---48080 if it holds this point for some time then with a stop loss of 47900 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48600—48700 with a stop loss of 48800 or can sell if it moves below 48070 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 48350. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.