A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-29.11.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24274.15—High—24345.75---Low---23873.35---Close----23914.15 on 28.11.2024.

Support:23893.70/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a flat note and thereafter had both side moves majorly in the downside range during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 360.75 points. It has filled the gap today, which it created on 25.11.2024.

Please note that after two days of good up-move today’s movement severely jolted the chart setup which was somewhat slightly improving, but today’s move clearly indicates tremendous weakness in it and if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time then it may witness an accelerated fall. It has broken all the important key levels of 24097---23974.50 & 23893.70(figure may change) intraday today, but just managed to close just above its most critical point of 23893.70, if it hold this level on the closing basis then it may stage a recovery, but it may get into reasonable up-momentum only if it moves above 24355 & 24538 and sustain on the closing basis. But break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back in the deep corrective mode again and then it may have an accelerated down move and it may break its recent low of 23263.15 made on 21.11.2024 and may seek much lower levels.

The overall chart setup is very weak, it is already into the deep correction mode for earlier rise and today it slipped into corrective mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 24097, it has broken it recent bottom on the line chart, it fell below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and some below monthly chart also, it is also below all medium term moving averages on the daily and some below weekly chart also, and most importantly it is  below few long terms moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is still under threat, which is highly concerning, therefore chart setup indicates further fall ahead. However almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with buy mode and huge positive divergence but in overbought zone, so all together indicators are giving positive signals, therefore chart setup & technical indicators are giving mixed signals, therefore in totality as of now  it seems that it may head down further in coming days. The short & medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is still under threat and the threat will only end once it moves above 24365(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 23893.70----23758-----23691----23639----23566------23520------23453-----23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, it was already into deep correction for its earlier rise and slipped into corrective mode today for its recent rice as it closed below its threshold point of 24097(figure may change), break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back into big correction mode if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be in the range of 23566---23453(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23566---23453 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 23893.70 on the closing basis then the chance of bounce back is there, if it moves above 23974.50 and sustain on the closing basis then it will give a ray of hope that the up-move can extend, if it moves above 24097 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out recent corrective mode and may give it some strength,  if it moves above 24365 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will end the long term uptrend threat and will immensely help to extend the up-move and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and it has begun. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.  

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but it is still under threat.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Six out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is there but in overbought zone, so it may correct for a while and then may resume the up-move. It corrected today ,so watch out

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are also negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34--24097----24047.39----  (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 23659.18--- 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. The long term uptrend is still under threat as it is below its important threshold point of 24365(figure will change daily) on the daily chart.

5. It has decisively broken its recent bottom of 24194.50 on the line chart today.

6. It is below its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

7. The price action was weak today.

8. It is below all  its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24156----24060----24041----23992----23966---23922 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 23893.70 levels for some time with a stop loss of 23820 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24150—24200 with a stop loss of 24280 or can sell if it moves below 23870 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23950.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com