A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—29.11.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52389.95--High—52760.20--Low—51782.90--Close—51906.85 on 28.11.2024. 

Support:51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:51996.65/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 394.95 points. The gap it created on 25.11.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1--2 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 51271 levels, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will surely fill the gap someday, which may please be noted.

Please note that today’s movement has made a dent in the on-going up move. It was already into deep correction mode for its earlier rise and today it slipped into correct mode for its recent rise also as it closed below its threshold point of 52058.55(figure may change), which is a weak sign. However the hope of moving up will still be alive, if it manages to hold the range or points of 51362 & 50891.64 (figure may change) on the closing basis or moves above 52058.55 and sustain on the closing basis else it may drift down further. Please note that break & sustained close below 51362 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break & sustained close below 50891.64 (figure may change) may end the possibility of continuing the up move for good for a while. Therefore as of now its key support points are51362 & 50891.64. Please note that today’s move has dampened the chances of holding the above points ,so watch out.  

The overall chart setup is still weak, but despite today’s fall, it is above all its short, above almost all medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a hugely positive sign for the continuation of the up-move and if it sustain above it then the up-move is surely going to extend. Furthermore almost all the important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and indicate that it is in the buy mode with slight positive divergence. The only concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone, so it may correct and it has corrected today. So all together indicators are giving positive signal as of now therefore it is likely to move-up in coming days provided it holds the key points as mentioned in the 2^nd paragraph. The medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is intact now.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds the range of 51888----51580---51429----51396---51362 & 50891.64 ( some figure may change) the up-move is likely to extend for sure. Please note that  to give thrust to the up-move it has to move above 52355---52494----52578( it did tested all the three points intraday today in fact went past way above but could not sustain) and sustain on the closing basis and for the strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 51888----51580---51527----51487----51396----51362---51022----50953----50891.64----50703------50640----50617------50350----50298------50021-----49974----49711-----49654.65----49644-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, it was already into deep correction for its earlier rise and slipped into corrective mode today for its recent rice as it closed below its threshold point of 52058.55(figure may change), break & sustained close below 51362 will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained close below 50891.64 may end the possibility of the up move for a while, break & sustained close below 50640 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, but the range of 49974----49644 is the last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please note that sustained close below 49644 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now. 

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3 It is well above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained close above this point will help in extending the up-move.

4. The price action was mixed today.

5. All the important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal, positive divergence but in overbought zone as of now.

6 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51576----51554-----51487----51429----51396-----51137---50983----50640(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it extend the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit), but in sell mode and with huge negative divergence & monthly chart, indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.

3. It is into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52058.55----52015.06----  (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 51549.93---- 51492.11 ---- 50725.73---- 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. It has broken its recent bottom of 52191.50 on the line chart today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51550---51475 with a stop loss of 51250 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52450---52550 with a stop loss of 52700 or can sell if it moves below 51780 with a stop loss of 52060. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.