A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY-4.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22385.70-High—22521.10—Low—22346.50--Close-22434.65 on 3.4.2024.

Support: 22297.50/22234.35/22180.70/22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/22529.95/22623/22750/22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to negative note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 18.65 points. Please note that it made multiple top in the range of 22516---22529.95 in the last few days, but could not sustain, which is concerning, therefore, to continue the up move now it must move above 22526.60 and sustain on the closing basis and that too in a shortest possible time, else it may head down. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months, however as long as price action supports it may continue to show upside from time to time but fear of moving down will always be there because of the volatility and weak technical indicators on the weekly & monthly chart, which please keep in mind.  It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

It has been giving whip saw around its Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80 for the last few days, but now it is well above and if it manages to hold this mark on the closing basis then the up move may continue, else it may head down.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22452.55---- 22526.60---22529.95----22623----22750----22787----22800---22838----22870---22935---23072---23117---23139---23344, it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up move for a while and move sideways.

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at  22369.44---22363.52---22336.61----22334---22215---22209---22194----22126.80---22118.40---22105---22022---21902.87---21871.36----21860---21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20---21593---21500.35----21448.65---21285.55----21158----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top, it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again. Please note that if it holds the range of 22369.44---22363.52 on the closing basis the up move can continue, break below 22336.61 will push it into short correction mode for its very recent rise, sustained break below the range of 22209---22194---22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, however as long as it holds 21902.87 on the closing basis chances of continuation of the up move will be alive, break below the range of 21801.45—21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024 and then break below each point will weaken it further and finally sustained break below 21158 & 21137.20 may accelerate the fall and will threaten the long term uptrend also..

It is important to mention here all the five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart, which is a positive sign and indicate further upside may be ahead. But four important indicators on the weekly and one indicator on the monthly chart is negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. Therefore, all together volatility-wise & weekly & monthly indicator-wise it is still on a weak footing, which is concerning. However, on the other parameters such as moving average placement is good, making higher top & bottom and price action has also improved and more or less has been positive consistently, therefore if the other parameters remain good the up move may continue. But I once again repeat that the weekly & monthly indicators speak otherwise at this point of time, so ride the on-going rise with caution and alert. It is in the long-term uptrend; therefore it is buying on decline market now.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22390----22360 with a stop loss of 22300 or can buy if it moves above 22477 and maintain for some time with a stop-loss of 22425.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22570--- 22610 with a stop loss of 22640. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com