A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—5.4.2024

 

­­­­

2

2

2

2

 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48086.20--High—48254.65-Low—47712.70---Close—48060.80 on 4.4.2024.

Support: 47795/47588/47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 436.55 points. It is showing good strength but the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 47676. But if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months, however as long as price action and other parameters supports it may continue to show upside from time to time but fear of moving down will always be there because of the volatility and weak technical indicators on the weekly & monthly chart, which please keep in mind.  

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must sustain above these points on the closing basis. It has been below all these points for a long time, which is weak sign. However, after good correction few days back it has started moving up again and inching up towards the critical point which is a positive sign.   

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 48161.25---48381.95---48636.45----48722---48925----49024---49567.60(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while.

Similarly moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 47795-----47695---47682.15---47644---47617---47571.37----47328.78--47280.44---47270.25----47125---47122----47106---47095----47029.20---46995-----46949.45---46825---46720---46635----46533---46444---46379.26---46369.50----46310.10---46245----46209----46036---45828.80---45661.75----45421.96---45295---45194----45085(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. But sustained break below 47795 may dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 48636.45 or hitting a new high, sustained break below 47682.15 & 47571.37 will push it into correction mode, break below 47328.78 & 47280.44 will push it back into good correction mode , break below the range of 47125---47122---47106---47095 may trigger fresh fall , but if it holds 46369.50 on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive,  sustained break below 46310.10 may accelerate the fall, break below 46245 will threaten the long term up trend, sustained break below 45661.75 may weaken it further, sustained break below 45421.96 may end the possibility for the continuation of the up move for a while and it may head for further down move and finally sustained break below 45085 may jeopardize the long term uptrend, which please note.    

It is important to mention here all the five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart, which is a positive sign and indicates further upside may be ahead. But four important indicators on the weekly and two indicators on the monthly chart is negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. Therefore, all together volatility-wise & weekly & monthly indicator-wise it is still on a weak footing, which is concerning. However, on the other parameters it looks good such as moving average placement, making higher top & bottom and price action has also improved and positive, therefore if the other parameters remain good the up move may continue. But I once again repeat that the weekly & monthly indicators speak otherwise at this point of time, so ride the on-going rise with caution and alert. It is in the long-term uptrend; therefore it is buying on decline market now.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 47700----47600 with a stop loss of 47490 or if it moves above 48194 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47900.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48500—48600 with a stop loss of 48700. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

2