A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-18.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22125.30-High—22213.75—Low—22079.45--Close-22147.90 on 16.4.2024.

Support: 22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22180.70/22234.35/22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap for the 2^nd day in a row and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 124.60 points. The last three days fall was sharp and it shook the technical setup, therefore further fall looks very much likely.. Please note that the gap it created today and on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the 1^st gap in next 3—4 trading sessions and 2^nd gap in 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can move up to 22259.55 & 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down move is on. Please note that other parameters has also weakened further, therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in the next 1-2 trading sessions and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22224.35-----22243.77----22297.50----22303.80---22363.12-----22389-----22395----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568----22619-----22636.45---22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 22243.77 will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend, sustained close above 22395 will provide it some strength, sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track, it will get out of all corrective mode above 22664.33 and finally sustained close above 22636.45 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also. 

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 22126.80----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It has slipped into deep short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed well below its critical and threshold points of 22664.33---22524.24 & 22389,  sustained break below 22126.80 may trigger fresh fall, break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.

It is important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart, which is huge weak sign and indicates further down move is ahead. Furthermore three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the line and bar chart after a long time, therefore all together it is  indicating extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies. However, if it stages a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some of its important points as mentioned above then the chances of up could be there, else down move may continue. It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but they have to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- AFTER 3 DAYS OF SHARP FALL CHANCE OF AN UP RALLY COULD BE THERE ON 18.4.2024 BUT IF IT OPENS WITH A DOWN GAP THAT IS BELOW 22079.45 THEN IT IS VERY MUCH LIKELY TO HAVE A PULLBACK UP MOVE. BUT FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO TRY LONG TRADE ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 22243.77(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND SUSTAIN ELSE AVOID.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21960---21925 and not below it with a stop loss of 21850 or if it holds 22126.80 for some time with a stop loss of 22060. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22265--- 22285 with a stop loss of 22350 or sell below 22060 with a stop loss of 22150 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com