A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—19.4.2024

 

2

2

2

2

 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47592.70--High—47829.75-Low—46982.15---Close—47069.45 on 18.4.2024.

Support: 47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 47191.65/47259.85/47363.40/47481.35/47588/47795/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95//48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49057.80/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side wild moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 415.35 points. It has been relentlessly falling for the last 4 days which has shook the overall technical setup, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out. Please note that today it has filled the 2^nd gap it created on 16.4.2024(gap point-47725.80) but the gap it created on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 2-3 trading sessions , which is technically possible then it can move up to 48477.55, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down move is on. Please note that other parameters  has also weakened further, therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(daily gap of 47676 created on 4.4.2024 is yet to be filled), which please note.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must sustain above these points on the closing basis. Please note that it is well below these points now, which is a very weak sign and to get back on the up momentum track again it has to bounce back above these points and sustain on the closing basis, else it may move sideways or drift down.   

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 47279.80---47416.73---47471.91----47481.35-----47491----47635----47647----47795-----47820----47965.10-----48203.45----48292.25----48295.45---48381.95---48481---48636.45-----48637.89----48642.35----48785-------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. It is into deep corrective mode now. Please note that sustained close above 47471.91 will give a ray of hope that it can give a meaningful pullback up move, sustained close above the range of 47491----47647----47820 will strengthen it, sustained close above 48203.45 & 48292.25 will provide it good strength and sustained close above 48363.45 & 48637.89 will put it back on the up momentum track and it will get out of all corrective mode and finally sustained close above 48642.35 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 49057.40 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 47062----47010.80---46886.90----46591-----46529.05---46507.15---46475-----46458---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----45309---44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into deep correction mode for its recent rise., sustained break below 46475 will indicate that it could drag it down to 45828.80 levels, sustained break below 46458 will threaten the long term uptrend, sustained break below 46369.50 & 46310.40 may trigger fresh fall, sustained break below 45828.80 will indicate that the correction could be much deeper and finally  break below 45309 may jeopardize the long term uptrend and it could head for bigger fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken it further, which may please be noted. Please note that the most crucial support point is 45828.80 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.   

It is important to mention here all the five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart, which is a hugely weak sign and indicates that the down move may deepen. Furthermore one important indicators on the weekly and two indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short and medium  term moving averages on the daily chart and some below on the weekly chart also after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the line chart after a long time, therefore all together it indicating extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies. However, if it stages a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some of its important points as mentioned above then the chances of up could be there, else down move may continue.  It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but one has to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges.

IMPORTANT NOTE: --IT IS INTO CORRECTIVE MODE AND MOVING DOWN FROM HERE IT HAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT AT 46591---46475 & 46458, IT MAY BOUNCE BACK FROM THIS RANGE BUT SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 46458 CAN DRAG IT DOWN TO 45828.80 LEVELS OR MUCH LOWER. IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE IN GENERAL TILL VISIBLE SIGN OF CORRECTION COPMLETION EMERGES. HOWEVER AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE AT CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH PROPER STOP LOSSES FOR PULLBACK GAINS. BUT FOR THE SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO TRY LONG TRADE ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 47471.91(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND SUSTAIN.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 46590----46475 but not below it with a stop loss of 46200. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47500—47600 with a stop loss of 47750 or sell below 46980 with a stop loss of 47150. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

2