A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—4.9.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-19258.15---High—19458.55-Low-19255.70--Close-19435.30 on 1.9.2023.

Support: 19361.75/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19253.60/19245/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55.

Resistance: 19465/19467.50/19482.75/19523.60/19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19645.50/19795.60/19867.55/19887.40/19991.85.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and then steadily moved up and ended the day with a handsome gain of 181.50 points. After languishing around the critical support range of 19303---19296---19253.60---19245---19229.60---19223.65 for quite sometime finally it staged a sharp bounce back today and closed above its pullback threshold point of 19405(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move can extend. It is already into short & medium term corrective mode for earlier gain, it is also into short correction mode for its recent rise. But the important technical indicators are giving mixed signals on the daily chart and one indicator is strongly pointing that this up move can extend further, but on the weekly chart few indicators are giving terribly weak signal and indicate that today’s up move may extend for few days but may not last longer and eventually head down, therefore it is suggested that irrespective of indicators placement now please give prime importance to price action because if price action weakens then only the indicators weakness will come into play which please note, so be cautious and watchful. I once again reiterate that as long as it holds the above mentioned critical range chances of up move will always be alive. Please note that for the steady up movement it has to moves above 19453---19585 & 19645.50(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short and medium term bias is down as of now but the long term uptrend is still intact.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19453---19458.55---19483---19506.37----19517---19585—19608----19645.50---19698---19796---19811---19838(figure may change), Please note that it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up move again or it may fizzle out at any of these points. But it may get into steady up movement if it moves above 19453---19585 & 19645.50(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else may start to drift down again eventually.

Moving down from here its support points could be at 19405---19365---19338---19303---19296---19253.60---19245----19229.70---19223.65---18887.60--18708(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again or may slide down also. It is already into correction mode and break below each support point will weaken it further, if it holds 19405 chances of up move will be alive, break below the range of 19245----19223.65, will push it into deep and long term corrective mode and will trigger fresh fall, break below 18887.60 may accelerate the fall and finally break below 18708(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend which may please be noted. 

IMPORTANT NOTE:-It closed above its pullback threshold point of 19405 today, so the pullback up move is on and it can extend further provided it holds this mark ,but since the indicators on the daily & weekly chart are giving mixed indications and overall pointing out that this rally may not last long and eventually it may head down, furthermore as you are already aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, so please be alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for the pullback gains.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe trader’s long trade can be tried if it holds 19405 levels for some time with a stop loss of 19340 or if it moves above 19460 and maintain with a stop loss of 19400. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 19253.60--- 19245----19223 with a stop loss of 19180. Please note that long trade could be a risky bet in correction mode but pullback move is on so it can be tried at critical support points for the pullback gains with extreme alert and caution.

2. It is still in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into correction mode , therefore short trade can be attempted but with caution on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19610----19640 with a stop loss of 19680 or sell if it moves below 19370 with a stop loss of 19440.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.