A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—4.9.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43996.10---High—44568.55---Low---43830.75---Close—44436.10 on 1.9.2023.

Support:44459.25/44279.40/44254/44151.80/ 43950/43862/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance: 44498.60/44547.80/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50/45782.75/46310.10/46369.50.   

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and then steadily moved up and ended the day with a robust gain of 446.95 points. The price action was strong today and it decisively bounced back above its most critical point of 44151.80 and above its pullback threshold point of 44254(figure may change) and if it sustain above these points up move may extend. But it is still into deep and long term corrective mode for earlier gain, it is also into short correction mode for its recent rise. The short term technical setup is weak, but four out of five important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart and strongly pointing that the up move can extend further from here, but on the weekly chart few indicators are giving terribly weak signal and indicate that today’s up move may extend for few days but may not last longer and eventually head down, therefore it is suggested that irrespective of indicators placement now please give prime importance to price action because if price action weakens then only the indicators weakness will come into play which please note, so be cautious and watchful. I once again reiterate that as long as it holds 44254 & 44151.80 on the closing basis chances of up move will always be alive and if it breaks it and sustain then the next strong support range would be between 43680---43354. Please note that for the steady up movement it has to moves above 44497---44780---44950 &45118.05(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short and medium term bias is down as of now but the long term uptrend is still intact.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44547.80----44631.41---44658---44701---44739---44780---44949.90---44985---45118.05----45311---45716---45816(figure may change) Please note that it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or up move can fizzle out also. It may get into steady up movement if it moves above 44497---44780---44950 & 45118.05 and sustain on the closing basis.

Moving  down  from here its good support points could be at 44422---44279.40---44254---44151.80---43989---43706.15---43680---43600.35---43519.55---43390---43345----43038.25---42986.45(figures may change), these could be possible buying points also as  it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again or  may keep sliding down also. It is already into long and deep corrective mode, break below each support point will weaken it further, break below 44254 & 44151.80 will lessen the possibility of an up move, break below 43680 &43600(figure may change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend, break below 43345 may trigger fresh fall and finally sustained break below 43038.25 & 42986.45 may accelerate the fall.

IMPORTANT NOTE:-It closed above its pullback threshold point of 44254 today, so the pullback up move is on and it can extend further provided it holds this mark ,but since the indicators on the weekly chart is giving weak signal and overall pointing out that this rally may not last long and eventually it may head down, furthermore as you are already aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, so please be alert and cautious in the long trade initiated for the pullback gains.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe trader’s long trade can be tried if it moves above 44497 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 44240. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline near or within the range of 44254---44151.80 with a stop loss of 43980. Please note that long trade could be a risky bet in correction mode but pullback move is also on so it can be tried at critical support points for the pullback gains with extreme alert and caution.

2. It is still in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into deep and long corrective mode, therefore short trade can be attempted on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44990---45050 with a stop loss of 45160 or sell if it moves below 44151 with a stop loss of 44350.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.