A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—31.7.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-19659.75--High—19695.90-Low-19564.70--Close-19646.05 on 28.7.2023.

Support: 19639/19608/19584/19535/19523.60/ 19498/19450/19303.60/ 19300/19275/19246.50/19234.40/19201.70/19189/19138/ 19104/19035/18991/18887.60/18886.60/18881.45/18794.10/18864.70/18778/18696.10/18660.65/18604.45/ 18555.40/18531.60/18464.55/18458.90/18350.95/18265.25/18210.25/18202.40/18201.25/18134.75/18131.70/18114.65/18105.30/18060.40/18042.40/17959.20

Resistance: 19663/19674/19748/ 19830/19925/19970.50/19991.85/20160//20236/20278/20390/20719/20944.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After yesterdays key reversal it opened flat and slightly moved up but later went down and in last half hour it recovered but finally ended the day with meager loss of 13.85 points. It is already into correction mode, it has fallen below some of its short term moving averages, it is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart after a long time and most importantly four out of five important technical indicators are negative now, therefore all together it is very concerning and pointing that it can go down sharply from here in coming days and I believe the process is on. However it is important to mention here that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in next 3-4 trading sessions and closes above some of its critical points as mentioned below and sustain above it then the continuation of the up move will be in jeopardy and it may keep drifting down and break below 19562.95 may accelerate the fall. The short term technical chart setup and parameters are weak now but it is still in the strong long term uptrend and it is buying on decline market in general as of now. But in view of volatility, key reversal, negative technical indicators and correction mode it is suggested to defer buying on decline for some time till visible sign of correction completion emerges because correction can get ugly also at times, so watch out. 

Moving down from here its support points could be at 19631—19619---19615----19603----19570---19536---19513---19441---19417---19385---19372---19356---19327---19323----19303.60—19300----19245----18887.60(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and resume the up move again. It is already in the correction mode and break below each support point will weaken it further, break below 19619 & 19603 will be an alert point, break below 19562.95 & 19525 may accelerate the fall, there is a strong chance that it could bounce back from 19441 but break below it could be a bad sign, break below the range of 19385---19372---19356---19327---19323---19303.60---19300 may trigger fresh fall and break below 19245 will get it into deep and long corrective mode and finally break below 18887.60 may accelerate the fall.. 

Similarly moving up from here it may face resistance at 19653—19674---19696----19830---19925---19991.85---20160---20236---20390---20719 it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again. Please note that 19664.30(figure may change) is its pullback threshold point and if it closes above it and sustains then chances are that it could possibly move up further to 19727---19777---19828---19891---19906(figures may change), possible rally can fizzle out at any of these points or earlier, but if it closes above 19906 and sustains then the possibility is that it could retest its all-time high of 19991.85 or may go beyond it also.  It will get out of corrective mode if it closes above 19830 and sustains and then it is expected to pick up good up momentum again.   

IMPORTANT NOTE:-Long trade below 19525 could be a risky bet for the day.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe trader’s it is suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 19665 or correction completion sign emerges. However, aggressive traders can  try long trade if it moves above 19696 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19600 or can buy on decline near or within the range of 19525----19441 but not below it with a stop loss of 19370. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

2. It is in the strong uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair but as it is into correction mode and other parameters are also weak, therefore short trade can be attempted on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19770----19800 with a stop loss of 19860 or sell if it moves below 19560 with a stop loss of 19625 .It could be a risky trade mind you but worth trying.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.